Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC on ESPN 38 takes place tonight at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a lightweight fight as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC on ESPN 38 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC on ESPN 38 predictions page for picks for each fight on the main and preliminary card. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
Main Card Best Bets
Arman Tsarukyan vs Mateusz Gamrot – Fight to go the distance – No (-125)
Arman Tsarukyan is a huge favorite in this fight, but Mateusz Gamrot has won 3 UFC fights in a row and has been too strong overall to count out of this fight. They both have elite grappling and both have 12 wins by finish in their careers, including 2 in a row for Tsarukyun and 3 in a row for Gamrot. This should be a fast-paced fight, so backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
Shavkat Rakhmonov win by finish (-135) over Neil Magny
Shavkat Rakhmonov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-0. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Carlston Harris by KO/TKO in February. Rakhmonov is averaging 2.94 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 1.56 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. Rakhmonov is also very good on the ground, averaging 1.88 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.90 submission attempts during the same time period.
Rakhmonov is a huge favorite in this fight and while he looks to be the obvious play, his money line is still a bit too high to back. He has won all 15 of his career fights by finish, 8 by KO/TKO and 7 by submission, while Neil Magny has 6 losses by finish. Because Rakhmonov has a perfect finish rate, backing him to win here by finish as well will be the play.
Make sure you also read our UFC on ESPN 38 four-fight parlay
Umar Nurmagomedov win by submission (+100) over Nate Maness
Umar Nurmagomedov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-0. He is 2-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Brian Kelleher by submission in March. Nurmagomedov is averaging 3.61 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 64%. He is absorbing 0.67 strikes and has a striking defense of 83%. Nurmagomedov also has elite grappling, averaging 7.56 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 2.5 submission attempts during the same time period.
Nurmagomedov is easily the biggest favorite on the card and while a win seems almost guaranteed, this is a money line that you cannot bet. He has won 7 fights by submission in his career, including 3 of his last 4 fights and both his UFC fights. Nate Maness has not lost by submission, but he also has not fought a guy with grappling like Nurmagomedov. There is always the risk of Nurmagomedov controlling this fight for 3 rounds and winning by decision, but recently his grappling and submission ability has been unmatched, therefore backing him to win by submission will be the play.
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