Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
We are back in Las Vegas at the UFC Apex for UFC on ESPN 24. This weeks card will feature a Women’s Flyweight fight as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite four-fight parlay that pays at odds of +568. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 24 predictions for the full 12-fight card.
Geoff Neal Money Line (-190)
Geoff Neal comes into this fight 6-1 in the UFC, most recently suffering his first loss in the Octagon. Neal is averaging 4.94 significant strikes per minute and is landing them with an accuracy of 49 percent. He is absorbing 4.93 strikes and has a striking defense of 61 percent. His grappling is not likely to win him this fight, considering he is only averaging 0.50 takedowns per every 15 minutes. At the same time, his 92 percent takedown defense will probably end up playing a huge role.
Neal appears to be the more balanced fighter with the better striking and a takedown defense that is elite. Neil Magny did not look great in his last fight, almost like he was not focused, so backing Neal on the money line will be my play.
Gregor Gillespie Money Line (-165)
Gregor Gillespie comes into this fight 6-1 in the UFC. Gillespie is averaging 3.58 significant strikes per minute and is landing them 49 percent of the time. He is absorbing 2.14 strikes and has a striking defense of 60 percent. Gillespie’s grappling is where he will look to dominate, averaging 7.02 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 47 percent and never has been taken down in the UFC.
While it is true that Gillespie is coming off a long layoff, Diego Ferreira’s lackluster grappling should be seen as a concern. I believe Gillespie can control this fight on the ground and will back him on the money line.
Amanda Ribas Money Line (-185)
Amanda Ribas comes into this fight 4-1 in the UFC. Ribas is averaging 4.25 significant strikes per minute, landing them 44 percent of the time. She is absorbing 1.78 strikes and has a striking defense of 71 percent. Ribas is also a solid grappler, averaging 2.31 takedowns per every 15 minutes. She has a takedown accuracy of 58 percent and a takedown defense of 85 percent.
Angela Hill appears to have the better striking overall, but Ribas is much better on the ground. She also does a better job absorbing damage, therefore backing her on the money line will be my play.
Kyle Daukaus Money Line (-130)
Kyle Daukaus comes into this fight 2-1 in the UFC, winning his most recent fight against Dustin Stoltzfus by unanimous decision. Daukaus is averaging 3.69 significant strikes per minute and is landing them with an accuracy of 59 percent. He is absorbing 2.19 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 42 percent. His grappling is also very good, averaging 2.33 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He also averages 1.7 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 41 percent, but more impressively, his takedown defense is 94 percent. Daukaus is overall the better striker and is better at defending takedowns, therefore I will back him to win this fight.
