Matthew Lowrimore
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This week the Main Event at UFC on ABC 1 will feature a Featherweight fight. There are some huge favorites among this event, so looking for a parlay could be the best way to find the most value.
Here is our favorite four-fight parlay that pays at odds of +511. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ABC 1 predictions for the full 11-fight card.
Austin Lingo Money Line (-225)
Austin Lingo comes into this fight as a heavy favorite, and is 7-1 in the MMA. He finally had his seven-fight win streak snapped in his most recent fight. This was back in February of 2020, and was also his UFC debut. This was a loss by unanimous decision and Lingo did not look good at all. He is averaging 0.80 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 19 percent. Lingo is absorbing just 2.07 strikes, so his chin does not appear to be an issue. He might be looking to grapple more often than not, averaging 1.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes.
Jacob Killburn enters this fight 8-3 in the MMA and 0-2 in the UFC. He looked terrible in his most recent fight, losing by submission to Billy Quarantillo. This was back in December of 2019. Killburn averages 0.77 significant strikes per minute, landing them 55 percent of the time. His chin is the bigger issue, absorbing 7.26 strikes per minute. He also has a striking defense of just 17 percent. Killburn has failed to defend any takedowns so far in the UFC and has not landed any either.
Killburn has not been impressive at all and his lack of striking is going to be an issue to say the least. Also with Killburn not being able to defend takedowns, Lingo will likely have success here.
Ramazan Emeev by Decision (-110)
Ramazan Emeev comes into this fight as a massive favorite and is 19-4 in the MMA. His 4-1 record in the UFC also looks solid too. His last fight was back in July of 2020, where he beat Niklas Stolze by unanimous decision. Emeev is averaging only 2.29 significant strikes per minute and landing them with just 43 percent accuracy. Note that he is only absorbing 1.79 strikes and his striking defense is 68 percent. Emeev also has decent grappling ability, averaging 2.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Though his takedown accuracy is only 25 percent. More importantly, his takedown defense is 72 percent.
David Zawada enters this fight with a record of 17-5 in the MMA. He is 1-2 in the UFC, last fighting in November of 2019. Zawada is averaging 3.38 significant strikes per minute, though his striking accuracy is only 41 percent. He absorbs 4.32 strikes per minutes, which is going to be the concern here. Zawada has decent grappling ability as well, averaging 0.94 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He is averaging 3.3 submission attempts during the same time period, but only has a takedown accuracy of 22 percent.
The layoff for Zawada is far too concerning to back, even at a nice plus price. Emeev has not finished a fight since 2016, so backing him to win by decision would be my play.
Dusko Todorovic Money Line (-162)
Dusko Todorovic comes into this fight 10-0 in the MMA and 2-0 in the UFC. He is a very high-volume striker, averaging 8.04 significant strikes per minute. He is absorbing 5.25 strikes, and it would appear his striking defense is starting to improve.
Punahele Soriano also comes into this fight undefeated with a record of 7-0 in the MMA. He is 2-0 in the UFC, though his last fight was in December of 2019. With that long of a layoff, it is hard to trust Soriano against another undefeated fighter that fought recently. Soriano is averaging 3.99 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.41.
Both guys have shown they are promising prospects, but Todorovic’s striking ability would have me to believe he can come away with a win.
Joaquin Buckley Money Line (-280)
Joaquin Buckley is starting to gain attention after winning his last two fights in a row. He followed up his win over Impa Kasanganay by beating an undefeated Jordan Wright. He beat Wright by KO back in November of 2020. Buckley is averaging 4.89 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.49 strikes per minute. His grappling will not be a major factor here, but he defends takedowns 100 percent of the time.
Alessio Di Chirico comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-5. He is 3-5 in the UFC and has lost three fights in a row. Di Chirico is averaging 3.25 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.28 strikes. The good news is that Di Chirico has never been knocked out. His grappling is decent, averaging 1.66 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He only lands his takedowns 45 percent of the time, so he may have trouble here as well.
Buckley has shown so much power, especially recently. He has nine wins by KO/TKO and that looks to be a viable way that he will win here as well. Because Di Chirco has a strong chin, my play is just going to be Buckley on the money line.
