Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 238 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a heavyweight fight between Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev as the Main Event. Here are our best bets for this UFC card, which will include 3 fights on the Main Card.
Be sure to also check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the UFC Fight Night 238 Main Card fights.
UFC Fight Night 238 Main Card Best Bets
Vitor Petrino Win by Finish Over Tyson Pedro (-110)
Vitor Petrino comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-0 and he is 4-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.07 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Petrino is absorbing 2.65 strikes and has a striking defense of 43%. His grappling has been elite so far, averaging 4.15 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.0 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 70% and a takedown defense of 68%.
Petrino is the overwhelming favorite in this fight, so we will be looking at how he will win. He has won 3 of his 4 UFC fights by finish, including his last 2 fights in a row. Overall, he has won 8 of his 10 career fights by finish, therefore backing Petrino to win by finish will be our best bet.
Muhammad Mokaev vs. Alex Perez – Fight to go the Distance – No (-135)
Muhammad Mokaev comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-0 and he is 5-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 1.12 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. Mokaev is absorbing 1.19 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. In the UFC, his grappling has been elite, averaging 6.47 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.3 submission attempts during the same time period.
Alex Perez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 24-7 and he is 7-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.67 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Perez is absorbing 3.14 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling is also very good, averaging 2.84 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.3 submission attempts during the same time period.
Mokaev is the heavy favorite in this fight, making his money line not valuable enough to bet. Instead, we will simply be looking at this fight to end inside the distance. Mokaev has seen 4 of his 5 UFC fights end inside the distance and 8 of his 11 fights overall. As for Perez, he has seen 8 of his 10 UFC fights end inside the distance — including each of his last 4. Because of this, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our best bet.
Steve Erceg Win by Submission or Decision Over Matt Schnell (-115)
Steve Erceg comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-1 and he is 2-0 in this UFC. He is averaging 4.27 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. Erceg is absorbing 3.57 strikes and has a striking defense of 49%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 2.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.0 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 33% and his takedown defense is 77%.
Erceg is the clear favorite in this fight, so we will be looking at the method in which he could win. Of his 11 career wins, Erceg has 10 by either submission or decision. This includes his last 6 UFC fights, therefore backing him to win by submission or decision will be our play.
