Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 237 takes place on Saturday at the Arena CDMX in Mexico. This card features a flyweight fight between Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval as the Main Event. Here are our best bets for this UFC card, which will include 3 fights on the Main Card.
Be sure to also check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the UFC Fight Night 237 Main Card fights.
UFC Fight Night 237 Main Card Best Bets
Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval – Fight to go the Distance – No (-135)
Brandon Royval comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-7 and he is 5-3 in the UFC. Royval is averaging 3.80 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43%. He is absorbing 3.05 strikes and has a striking defense of 45%. Royval is only decent at grappling, averaging 0.43 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.5 submission attempts during the same time period.
Brandon Moreno comes into this fight with an MMA record of 21-7-2 and he is 9-4-2 in the UFC. Moreno is averaging 3.80 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43%. He is absorbing 3.40 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%.
Moreno is a heavy favorite in this fight, making his money line too risk to back. Instead, we will be looking at the fight to end inside the distance. Moreno has seen 16 of his 28 career fights end inside the distance, which includes 3 of his last 5 fights in the UFC. Royval has seen 15 of his 22 career fights end inside the distance, which includes 7 of his last 10 fights. Because both fighters have had a high finish rate recently, backing his fight to end inside the distance will be one of our best bets.
Yair Rodriguez ML over Brian Ortega (-148)
Yair Rodriguez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-4 and he is 10-3 in the UFC. Rodriguez is averaging 4.63 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. He is absorbing 4.07 strikes and has a striking defense of 51%. His grappling is decent, averaging 0.73 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 28%, while his takedown defense is 59%.
Unlike the recent fight between these two in June of 2022, Rodriguez is now the moderate-sized favorite. He has overall been the more consistent fighter as of recently, while Brian Ortega is only 1-3 in his last 4 UFC fights. Based on the fact that Rodriguez easily won the fight against Ortego in 2022, backing him to win here as well will be our best bet.
Yazmin Jauregui to Win by Decision over Sam Hughes (-120)
Yazmin Jauregui comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-1 and she is 2-1 in the UFC. She is averaging 6.26 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. She is absorbing 4.87 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. Jauregui has not shown any grappling ability, but has a takedown defense of 100%.
Jauregui is one of the biggest favorites on the card, therefore we will be looking at the method in which Jauregui will win. She has won just 3 fights by decision in her career, but more importantly, Hughes has only ever lost twice by finish, the most recent being in 2020. Because Sam Hughes has been good at not being finished in her fights, backing Jauregui to win by decision will be our best bet.
