Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 234 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a Light Heavyweight fight between Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker as the Main Event. Here are our best bets for this UFC card.
Be sure to also check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
UFC Fight Night 234 Main Card Best Bets
Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez – Fight to End by KO/TKO (-115)
Jim Miller comes into this fight with an MMA record of 36-17 and 25-16 in the UFC. Miller is averaging 2.86 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. He is absorbing 3.08 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. His grappling has been solid throughout his career, averaging 1.56 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.8 submission attempts during the same time period.
Gabriel Benitez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 23-11 and 7-6 in the UFC. Benitez is averaging 4.79 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. He is absorbing 4.05 strikes and has a striking defense of 65%.
Miller is a small favorite in this fight, but instead we will be looking at how this fight will end. Benitez has seen each of his last 4 fights end by KO/TKO, while Miller has seen 3 of his last 6 fights end by the same method, including his most recent fight. Both fighters have also seen many of their fights end by submission, but given recent results, backing this fight to end by KO/TKO will be our best bet.
Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista – Fight to go the Distance – No (+110)
Ricky Simon comes into this fight with an MMA record of 20-4. He is 9-3 in the UFC, most recently losing to Song Yadong by KO/TKO back in April of 2023. Simon is averaging 3.01 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. He is absorbing 3.23 strikes and has a striking defense of 62%. His grappling has been elite, averaging 5.84 takedowns per every 15 minutes.
Mario Bautista comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-2 and is 7-2 in the UFC. Bautista is averaging 5.32 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 4.20 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. His grappling has been good, averaging 2.72 takedowns per every 15 minutes.
Simon is a heavy favorite in this fight; therefore we will be looking for this fight to end inside the distance. Simon has seen 4 of his last 5 fights end inside the distance, which includes his last 3 fights in a row. Bautista has seen 3 of his last 4 fights end inside the distance, so backing this fight to do the same will be our best bet.
Brunno Ferreira ML over Phil Hawes (-130)
Brunno Ferreira comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-1. He is 2-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to Nursulton Ruziboev by KO/TKO back in July of 2023. Ferreira is averaging 5.79 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 5.22 strikes and has a striking defense of 47%. He has not shown any grappling ability so far, but has a takedown defense of 50%.
Ferreira is a small favorite in this fight but looks to be the right side. He has slightly better striking, and has overall been more consistent throughout his MMA career. Based on that, backing Ferreira to win will be our best bet.
