Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 232 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a middleweight fight between Brendan Allen and Paul Craig as the Main Event.
Here is my favorite UFC parlay for this card, with odds of +1063 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
Michael Morales vs Jake Matthews – Fight to go the distance – No (-165)
Michael Morales is a heavy favorite, so we will instead be looking at this fight to end inside the distance. Jake Matthews has seen 17 of his 25 career fights end inside the distance, which includes 3 of his last 4 UFC fights. Morales has seen 12 of his 15 career fights ending early, including 2 of his last 4 UFC fights. Because they both have high finish rates overall, backing this fight to also end inside the distance is the pick.
Payton Talbott vs Nick Aguirre – Over 1.5 rounds (-215)
Payton Talbott is one of the biggest favorites on this card, therefore backing his money line is not worth it. Instead, I am looking for this fight to go over 1.5 rounds. Both fighters are making their UFC debut and will likely try to feel each other out so they do not make any mistakes. They each have seen their last 2 fights go over 1.5 rounds, and I’m backing the same to happen again.
Luana Pinheiro ML over Amanda Ribas (+195)
Luana Pinheiro comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-1. She is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Michelle Waterson-Gomez by split decision in April. Pinheiro is averaging 3.86 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 39%. She is absorbing 3.67 strikes and has a striking defense of 63%. Her grappling has been elite, averaging 2.83 takedowns per 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 50% and her takedown defense is 50%.
Amanda Ribas is the clear favorite, but Pinheiro looks to be the better option. She does not have the edge in striking, but has superior grappling and has never lost by finish. Pinheiro has been perfect in the UFC, therefore backing her to keep this unbeaten streak alive is my play.
Rafael Estevam ML over Charles Johnson (-148)
Rafael Estevam comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-0. He is 1-0 in the UFC, beating Joao Elias by KO/TKO in September 2022. However, that fight was in the Dana White Contender Series, making this his official UFC debut. Estevam is averaging 6.47 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 80%. He is absorbing 0.40 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. Estevam has also been an elite grappler, averaging 4.04 takedowns every 15 minutes. He also has a takedown accuracy of 50%.
Estevam is a moderate-sized favorite and looks to be the best option in this fight. He has much better striking and grappling compared to Charles Johnson, plus Johnson has lost his last 2 fights. Because Estevam is the much more balanced fighter, I’m backing him to win.
You can also read our UFC Fight Night 232 Best Bets
