Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 232 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring a middleweight fight between Brendan Allen and Paul Craig as the Main Event.
I’m sharing my UFC Fight Night 232 best bets here, but you can also head over to our UFC predictions for picks on every main-card fight. Let’s get into the best bets to be made on Saturday’s card.
UFC Fight Night 232 Main Card Best Bets
Brendan Allen win by submission or decision over Paul Craig (+105)
Brendan Allen comes into this fight with an MMA record of 22-5. He is 11-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Bruno Silva by submission in June. Allen is averaging 3.96 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 3.89 strikes and has a striking defense of 46%. His grappling is also decent, averaging 1.22 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.6 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 42% and a takedown defense of 55%.
Allen is the overwhelming favorite, so I will be looking at how Allen will win. He has won a combined 17 times by submission or decision, which includes 10 of his 13 UFC fights. Because of that, backing Allen to win by submission or decision is my best bet.
Chase Hooper vs Jordan Leavitt – Fight to go the distance – No (-105)
Chase Hooper comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-3-1 and 5-3 in the UFC. Hooper is averaging 5.00 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 3.67 strikes and has a striking defense of 36%. His grappling is decent, averaging 1.47 takedowns and 2.1 submission attempts every 15 minutes.
Jordan Leavitt has an MMA record of 11-2 and 5-2 in the UFC. Leavitt is averaging 2.64 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 60%. He is absorbing 1.93 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 2.31 takedowns and 1.2 submission attempts every 15 minutes.
Hooper is the clear favorite, but has been inconsistent in the UFC recently, going 3-3 in his last 6 fights. More importantly, Hooper has seen 10 of his 16 career fights end inside the distance, which includes 3 of his last 5 fights. Leavitt has seen 9 of his 13 career fights end inside the distance, including 3 of his last 4 fights. Because both fighters have a high finish rate, backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be my bet.
UFC Fight Night 232 Preliminary Card Best Bet
Jonathan Pearce ML over Joanderson Brito (-130)
Jonathan Pearce comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-4. He is 6-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Darren Elkins by unanimous decision in December of 2022. Pearce is averaging 6.11 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. He is absorbing 3.66 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. His grappling has been elite so far in the UFC, averaging 5.74 takedowns and 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 56% and a takedown defense of 59%.
Pearce is the moderate-sized favorite in this fight and does look to be the best option. He has the better striking compared to Joanderson Brito and the superior grappling, plus he has not lost in the UFC since 2019. For that reason, I’m backing Pearce to win.
You can also read our UFC Fight Night 232 4-fight parlay
