Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 231 takes place on Saturday at the Ibirapuera Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil. This card features a heavyweight fight between Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis as the Main Event.
Here is my favorite UFC parlay for this card, with odds of +582 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don’Tale Mayes – Fight to go the Distance – No (-150)
Rodrigo Nascimento is the clear favorite in this fight, but the more likely result is for this fight to end inside the distance. Don’Tale Mayes has seen 11 of his 16 career fights end inside the distance, while Nascimento has seen 9 of his 11 career fights do the same. With both fighters having high finish rates, also backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our play.
Caio Borralho vs. Abus Magomedov – Fight to go the Distance – No (-190)
Caio Borralho is a big favorite in this fight and while he looks to be the right side, backing a finish looks to be the more likely result. Abus Magomedov has seen 24 of his 31 career fights end inside the distance, including each of his last 5 fights. Borralho has seen 8 of his 15 career fights end inside the distance, therefore backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be our lean.
Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pachel – Over 2.5 Rounds (-115)
Ismael Bonfim comes into this fight with an MMA record of 19-4 and 2-1 in the UFC. Bonfim is averaging 4.91 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. He is absorbing 2.66 strikes and has a striking defense of 76%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.11 takedowns per every 15 minutes.
Vinc Pachel comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-3 and 7-3 in the UFC. Pichel is averaging 3.56 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47%. He is absorbing 2.50 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. His grappling is also going to play a major factor, averaging 3.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes.
Bonfim is one of the biggest favorites on this card, so instead we will be looking at the total rounds. Pachel has seen 5 of his last 6 fights go over 2.5 rounds, while Bonfim has seen 3 of his last 5 fights do the same. Pachel has only lost by finish twice in his career, therefore backing this fight to go over 2.5 rounds will be our bet.
Victor Petrino ML over Modestas Bukauskas (-230)
Victor Petrino comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-0. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Marcin Prachnio by submission back in July of this year. Petrino is averaging 3.35 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. He is absorbing 2.84 strikes and has a striking defense of 43%. His grappling has been elite so far, averaging 4.42 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 73% and a takedown defense of 68%.
Petrino is a big favorite in this fight, but has the superior grappling. Modestas Bukauskas has been inconsistent and is 3-3 in the UFC, therefore backing Petrino to win will be our play.
You can also read our UFC Fight Night 231 Best Bets
