Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 231 takes place on Saturday at the Ibirapuera Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil. This card features a heavyweight fight between Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis as the Main Event.
I’m sharing my UFC Fight Night 231 best bets here, but you can also head over to our UFC predictions for picks on every Main Card fight. Let’s get into the best bets to be made on Saturday’s card.
UFC Fight Night 231 Main Card best bets
Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis – Fight to end by KO/TKO (-110)
Jailton Almeida comes into this fight with an MMA record of 19-2 and 6-0 in the UFC. Almeida is averaging 3.81 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 64%. He is absorbing 0.30 strikes and has a striking defense of 25%.
Derrick Lewis comes into this fight with an MMA record of 27-11 and 18-9 in the UFC. Lewis is averaging 2.60 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. He is absorbing 2.59 strikes and has a striking defense of 41%.
Almeida is a heavy favorite in this fight, making his money too risk to bet. Despite the power that Lewis has shown over the course of his career, he has been wildly inconsistent as of late. Lewis is just 2-4 in his last 6 fights, and all 4 of those losses came by finish. Almeida has won 19 times by finish, including all 6 of his UFC fights. Combined, Almeida and Lewis have seen 37 of their 59 career fights end by KO/TKO. Therefore backing this fight to end by KO/TKO will be our best bet.
Gabriel Bonfim Win by Submission over Nicolas Dalby (+100)
Gabriel Bonfim comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-0 and 3-0 in the UFC. Bonfim’s grappling has been elite, averaging 4.80 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 7.2 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 100% and his takedown defense is 100%.
Gabriel Bonfim is a huge favorite in this fight, so backing his money line is not advised. Instead I will look at how Bonfim will win. He has won 12 fights by submission, including 5 of his last 6 fights and all 3 of his UFC fights. For that reason, backing Bonfim to win by submission will be our best bet.
Rodolfo Vieira ML over Arman Petrosyan (-110)
Rodolfo Vieira comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-2. He is 4-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Cody Brundage by submission back in April of this year. Vieira is averaging 3.36 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54%. He is absorbing 4.84 strikes and has a striking defense of 48%. His grappling has been elite so far, averaging 3.70 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.4 submission attempts during the same time period. Vieira’s takedown accuracy is 26% and his takedown defense is 100%.
This fight is dead even, but Vieira looks to be the right side. He has superior grappling, so even though Armen Petrosyan has the better striking, Viera has never lost by KO/TKO and Petrosyan also has poor takedown defense. For that reason backing Veira to win this fight will be our best bet.
You can also read our UFC Fight Night 231 4-fight parlay
