Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 230 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a featherweight fight between Sodiq Yusuff and Edson Barboza as the Main Event.
I’m sharing our UFC Fight Night 230 best bets here, but you can also head over to our UFC predictions for picks on every Main Card fight. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
UFC Fight Night 230 Main Card best bets
Jonathan Martinez vs. Adrian Yanez – Fight to End by KO/TKO (-125)
Jonathan Martinez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 18-4. He is 9-3 in the UFC, most recently beating Said Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision back in March of this year. Martinez is averaging 4.63 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. He is absorbing 3.81 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%.
Adrian Yanez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-4. He is 6-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to Rob Font by KO/TKO back in April of this year. Yanez is averaging 6.75 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 40%. He is absorbing 5.89 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%.
This fight is basically even, but instead of backing either one of these guys I will look at the method of victory. Yanez has seen 8 of his last 10 fights overall end by KO/TKO, while Martinez has seen 9 of his 22 fights overall end by the same method. For that reason, backing this fight to end by the same method will be the best bet.
Andre Petroski ML over Michel Pereira (+154)
Andre Petroski comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-2. He is 5-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Gerald Meerschaert by split decision back in August of this year. Petroski is averaging 3.68 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 2.99 strikes and has a striking defense of 51%. His grappling is also very good, averaging 4.56 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 2.5 submission attempts during the same time period. Petroski’s takedown accuracy is 54% and his takedown defense is 71%.
Michel Pereira is the heavy favorite in the fight, however because Petroski has the superior grappling and has not yet lost in the UFC, backing him to pull the upset will be my best bet.
Cameron Saaiman ML over Christian Rodriguez (+136)
Cameron Saaiman comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-0. He is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Terrence Mitchell by KO/TKO back in July of this year. Saaiman is averaging 5.41 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 2.48 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. His grappling is solid, averaging 1.33 takedowns per every 15 minutes, his takedown accuracy is 66% and his takedown defense is 41%.
Christian Rodriguez is the favorite in this fight, but Saaiman looks to be the better play. Saaiman has the superior striking and has never lost in his MMA career. Because of that, backing him to score the upset is my play.
You can also read our UFC Fight Night 230 4-fight parlay
