Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 229 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a lightweight fight between Grant Dawson and Bobby Green as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite UFC parlay for this card, with odds of +509 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
Joe Pyfer Win by KO/TKO over Abdul Razak Alhassan (-175)
Joe Pyer comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-2. He is 3-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Gerald Meerschaert by KO/TKO back in April of this year. Pyfer is averaging 3.63 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. He is absorbing 2.64 strikes and has a striking defense of 54%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 1.65 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 0.8 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 100% and his takedown defense is 50%.
Pyfer is a heavy favorite in this fight, therefore his money line is not worth the risk. However, Pyfer has won 10 times by finish in his career, including 3 of his 4 UFC fights and 8 times in total by KO/TKO. Abdul Razak Alhassan has only lost 1 fight by KO/TKO, but given Pyfer’s career finish rate, backing him to win by KO/TKO will be our lean.
Joaquin Buckley ML over Alex Morono (-175)
The third fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 229 will see Alex Morono take on Joaquin Buckley in the UFC welterweight division. Morono comes into this fight with an MMA record of 23-8. He is 12-5 in the UFC, most recently beating Tim Means by submission back in May of this year. Morono is averaging 5.20 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. He is absorbing 4.14 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. His grappling is not great though, averaging 0.29 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Morono’s takedown accuracy is only 20%, while his takedown defense is 50%.
Buckley comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-6. He is 6-4 in the UFC, most recently beating Andre Fialho. Buckley is averaging 3.76 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 32%. He is absorbing 3.42 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. His grappling has been solid, averaging 1.43 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 34% and his takedown defense is 66%.
Buckley is the heavy favorite in this fight, but he still looks to be the right side. Buckley’s striking volume is lacking compared to Morono’s but his grappling is far superior. Based on that, backing Buckley to win will be our lean.
Drew Dober Win by Finish over Ricky Glenn (-200)
Drew Dober comes into this fight with an MMA record of 26-12. He is 13-8 in the UFC, most recently losing to Matt Frevola by KO/TKO back in May of this year. Dober is averaging 4.48 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 39%. He is absorbing 4.50 strikes and has a striking defense of 51%. His grappling is decent at best, averaging 0.69 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 17% and his takedown defense is 56%.
Dober is an overwhelming favorite in this fight, thus making his money line too risky. Dober has won 19 of his 26 fights by finish, including his last 6 wins. For that reason, backing Dober to win by finish will be our lean.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz ML over Diana Belbita (-155)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-7. She is 8-7 in the UFC, most recently beating Vanessa Demopoulos by unanimous decision back in May. Kowalkiewicz is averaging 5.65 significant strikes and has a striking accuracy of 42%. She is absorbing 5.47 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. Her grappling is very limited, averaging just 0.31 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Kowalkiewicz’s takedown accuracy is 30% and her takedown defense is 76%.
Kowalkiewicz is a moderate favorite in this fight and looks to be the right side. Her striking is superior and even though Diana Belbita is the better grappler, Kowalkiewicz has a very good takedown defense to nullify her advantage. For that reason, backing Kowalkiewicz will be our play.
You can also read our UFC Fight Night 229 Best Bets
