Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 229 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a lightweight fight between Grant Dawson and Bobby Green as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 229 best bets here, but you can also head over to our UFC predictions for picks on every Main Card fight. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
UFC Fight Night 229 Main Card best bets
Grant Dawson Win by Finish over Bobby Green (-135)
Grant Dawson comes into this fight with an MMA record of 20-1-1. He is a perfect 9-0-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Damir Ismagulov by unanimous decision back in June of this year. Dawson is averaging 2.99 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%. He is absorbing 2.22 strikes and has a striking defense of 46%. Grappling will likely be his preferred method of fighting, averaging 3.70 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.5 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 36% and his takedown defense is 40%.
Dawson is a significant favorite in this fight, making his money line much too risky to back. Instead, we will look at the method of victory. Dawson has won 17 of his 20 career fights by finish, which includes 13 wins by submission. Bobby Green on the other hand, has 6 losses by finish, which includes 2 of his last 3 fights in the UFC. Given that Dawson has a very high finish rate, backing him to also win this fight by finish will be our best bet.
Bill Algeo ML over Alexander Hernandez (-135)
Bill Algeo comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-7. He is 4-4 in the UFC, most recently beating TJ Brown by submission back in April of this year. Algeo is averaging 5.93 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 4.32 strikes and has a striking defense of 46%. His grappling has been decent, averaging 0.87 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Algeo has a takedown accuracy of 42% and a takedown defense of 55%.
This matchup is fairly even, and both fighters have their strengths. Algeo is better in striking, while Alexander Hernandez is the better grappler. That being said, Hernandez does not have a high takedown accuracy, while Algeo has a good enough takedown defense to be able to limit Hernandez on the ground. Algeo is also in better form, going 3-1 in his last 4 UFC fights, while Hernandez is 1-3 over his last 4 UFC fights. For that reason, backing Algeo to win will be our best bet.
UFC Fight Night 229 Preliminary Card best bet
Philipe Lins ML over Ion Cutelaba (+124)
Philipe Lins comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-5. He is 3-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Maxim Grishin by unanimous decision back in June of this year. Lins is averaging 3.59 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. He is absorbing 3.73 strikes and has a striking defense of 44%. His grappling has been solid so far, averaging 1.55 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Lins’ takedown accuracy is 35% and his takedown defense is 100%.
Ion Cutelaba is a moderate favorite in this fight, but has been inconsistent in the UFC. He is just 1-3 in his last 4 UFC fights, while Lins is 3-1 over the same stretch. Based on that, backing Lins will be our best bet.
You can also read our UFC Fight Night 229 4-fight parlay
