Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 227 takes place on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a women’s flyweight title fight between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 227 best bets here, but you can also head over to our UFC predictions for picks on every Main Card fight. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
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UFC Fight Night 227 Main Card best bets
Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko – Fight to go the Distance – N0 (+100)
Alexa Grasso pulled the massive upset in the previous title fight between these 2 ladies, which does create some value on Valentina Shevchenko to win her title back. However, instead we will be looking for this fight to end inside the distance. Two of Grasso’s last three UFC fights have ended inside the distance, while three of Shevchenko’s last 4 fights have done the same. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our play.
Fernando Padilla Win by Finish over Kyle Nelson (-110)
Fernando Padilla comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-4. He is 1-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Julian Erosa by KO/TKO back in April of this year. Padilla is averaging 11.88 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 68%. He is absorbing 8.91 strikes and has a striking defense of 37%. He has not shown any grappling, but does have a takedown defense of 100%.
Padilla is the heavy favorite and looks to be the right side. He has won 13 of his 15 wins by finish, which includes four of his last six fights. Kyle Nelson has lost three of his five career fights by finish, therefore backing Padilla to win by finish will be our play.
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UFC Fight Night 227 Preliminary Card best bet
Tracy Cortez ML over Jasmine Jasudavicius (-122)
Tracy Cortez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-1. She is 5-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Melissa Gato by unanimous decision back in May of 2022. Cortez is averaging 3.56 significant strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 54%. She is absorbing 2.32 strikes and has a striking defense of 59%. Her grappling is solid, as well, averaging 2.80 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 48% and her takedown defense is 71%.
Cortez is a small favorite in this fight and because she has better striking and absorbs less damage, backing her to win and remain undefeated in the UFC will be our best bet.
You can also read our UFC Fight Night 227 4-fight parlay
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