Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC Fight Night 226 takes place on Saturday at the Accor Arena in Paris, France, featuring a heavyweight fight between Ciryl Gane and Serghei Spivac as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC Fight Night 226 best bets here, but you can also head over to our UFC predictions for picks on every Main Card fight. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
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UFC Fight Night 226 Main Card best bets
Serghei Spivac ML over Ciryl Gane (+145)
Serghei Spivac comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-3. He is 7-3 in the UFC after beating Derrick Lewis by submission in February. He is averaging 3.79 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51%, while absorbing 2.84 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%. He is also a solid grappler, averaging 5.05 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 65% and his takedown defense is 70%.
Ciryl Gane is a heavy favorite and despite the promise he has shown, he has struggled on the ground, which is something Spivac excels at. Because Spivac has the superior grappling and is still an elite striker, backing him to pull the upset is my best bet.
Bogdan Guskov ML over Volkan Oezdemir (+154)
Bogdan Guskov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-2. This will be his official UFC debut. So far in the MMA, he has 12 wins by KO/TKO and 2 wins by submission. On top of that, his last 5 fights have been won in the first round.
Volkan Oezdemir is the heavy favorite, but he has been inconsistent in the UFC recently and is just 1-3 in his last 4 fights and 3-6 in his last 9. Given that Guskov has a perfect finish rate, I’m backing him to win this fight in his UFC debut.
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UFC Fight Night 226 Preliminary Card best bet
Farid Basharat Win by Decision over Kleydson Rogrigues (-115)
Farid Basharat comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-0. He is 2-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Da’Mon Blackshear by unanimous decision in March. Basharat is averaging 5.80 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 63%. He is absorbing 2.43 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling has also been strong, averaging 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 60% and has a takedown defense of 83%.
Basharat is much too big of a favorite to back on the money line. However, he has won each of his last 2 fights by decision and Rodrigues has never lost by finish. For that reason, backing Basharat to win by decision could be the smart play.
You can also read our UFC Fight Night 226 4-fight parlay
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