Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
This week the Main Event at UFC Fight Night 181 will feature a Middleweight fight between two veterans. There are some huge favorites among this event, so looking for a parlay could be the best way to find the most value.
Here is our favorite three-fight parlay that pays at odds of +608. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 181 predictions for the full 12-fight card.
Miles Johns Money Line (-154)
Miles Johns comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-1. He is 1-1 in the UFC after most recently losing to Mario Bautista by TKO back in February of this year. Johns is averaging 3.19 strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.37 strikes. He has a decent striking accuracy of 49% as well. John also looks to be a good grappler, averaging 1.64 takedowns per minute, landing them with an accuracy of 66%. He defends takedowns 85% of the time as well.
Natividad will make his UFC debut here after starting 9-1 in the MMA. He is currently riding a five-fight win streak with his last fight coming in July of this year. He is more likely to finish the fight rather than win by decision. Natividad has five wins by KO/TKO and one by submission.
I see Johns as the much more balanced fighter and he also has more experience inside the Octagon. As a result, I will be backing Johns to win this fight.
Dustin Jacoby by Finish (-105)
Dustin Jacoby will make his UFC debut here an enters this fight 12-5 in the MMA. He recently earned a UFC contract on Dana White’s Contender Series back in August of this year. Jacoby is averaging 3.40 strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.46 strikes. He does not tend to grapple often, landing just 0.30 takedowns per minute, but with an accuracy of 100%. He defends takedowns 66% of the time, but has still lost by submission twice in his career.
Justin Ledet comes into this fight 9-3 in the MMA and 3-3 in the UFC. He started his UFC career 3-0, but has since lost three fights in a row. His most recent loss was back in January of this year at UFC 246 to Aleksa Camur by unanimous decision. Ledet is averaging 3.33 strikes per minute, but absorbing 4.67 strikes.
I like Jacoby in this fight, but his money line is far too steep to recommend straight up. He does have nine finishes in his 12 wins, so I would rather take a chance that Jacoby can finish the fight here in his debut.
Cole Williams vs. Jason Witt, Fight to go the Distance – No (+120)
Jason Witt is coming off his UFC debut, a fight he lost by TKO back in June of this year. This loss came quick as he went down within a minute of the fight actually starting. Witt is averaging 2.50 strikes per minute, but is absorbing 22.50 and has yet to show any kind of striking defense. He cannot grapple either, so his only method of victory will be in a stand-up fight.
Cole Williams comes into this fight having also lost his UFC debut, but this was back in August of 2019. This was a loss by submission an also ended in the first round. Williams is averaging a pathetic 0.77 strikes per minute, while absorbing 12.39 strikes.
I have no faith in either fighter here because of their lack of defense. Both guys have shown the ability to finish fights, so I will take this fight to end inside the distance at a plus price.
