Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 302 takes place on Saturday at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. This card features a lightweight title fight between Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier as the Main Event.
Here is my favorite UFC parlay for this card, with odds of +459 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Also be sure to check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk – Fight to go the Distance – No (-250)
The third fight on the Main Card at UFC 302 will see Kevin Holland take on Michal Oleksiejczuk in the UFC Middleweight division.
I am looking for it to end inside the distance. Holland has seen 6 of his last 8 UFC fights end inside the distance, while Oleksiejczuk has seen 6 of his last 7 UFC fights do the same. Because both fighters have had a high finish rate, backing the same fight prop here will be our play.
Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr Romanov – Fight to Start Round 2 (-175)
The second fight on the Main Card at UFC 302 will see Jailton Almeida take on Alexandr Romanov in the UFC Heavyweight division.
Almeida has been set as the overwhelming favorite, but instead we will be looking for this fight to start round 2. Ameida has seen 3 of his last 4 fights enter the second round, while Romanov has seen 4 of his last 6 fights do the same. Because both fighters have recently been going to at least the second round, backing this prop will be our lean.
Cesar Almeida ML vs. Roman Kopylov (-118)
Cesar Almeida comes into this fight with an MMA record of 5-0 and he is 2-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.50 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 64%. Further, Almeida is absorbing 1.31 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%. In terms of his grappling, he has not shown much ability so far, but does have a takedown defense of 62%.
Almeida is the small favorite in this fight, so even though Roman Kopylov has a slight edge in striking and grappling, backing Almeida to remain undefeated will be our play because he has been much better at absorbing damage compared to Kopylov.
Andre Lima ML vs. Mitch Raposo (-265)
Andre Lima comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-0 and he is 2-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.98 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 60%. As for his defense, Lima is absorbing 2.67 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 1.31 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.3 submission attempts over the same time period. He also has a takedown accuracy of 66% and a takedown defense of 61%.
Lima is the heavy favorite in this fight and looks to be the right side. Mitch Raposo, on the other hand, is making his UFC debut and is coming off a loss. Lima also has the slight edge in striking and has much better submission ability, therefore backing him to win will be our play.
You can also read our expert’s UFC 302 best bets
