Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 301 takes place on Saturday at the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This card features a flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg as the Main Event. Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for this UFC card, which will include 4 fights on the Main Card.
Here is my favorite UFC parlay for this card, with odds of +545 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Also be sure to check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
Alexandre Pantoja ML over Steve Erceg (-185)
Alexandre Pantoja comes into this fight with an MMA record of 27-5 and he is 11-3 in the UFC. Pantoja is averaging 4.32 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. He is absorbing 3.90 and has a striking defense of 50%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 2.20 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.0 submission attempts during the same time period. Pantoja’s takedown accuracy is 48% and he has a takedown defense of 67%.
Pantoja is the heavy favorite in this fight, which is warranted given that he is the one holding the title. Despite the high price, he still looks to be the side worth backing. His striking compared to Steve Erceg is essentially the same, but his grappling is superior. Erceg does defend takedowns at a high rate, but given his success fighting on the mat, backing Pantoja will be our play to retain the Flyweight title.
Jonathan Martinez ML over Jose Aldo (-148)
Jonathan Martinez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 19-4 and he is 9-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.64 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. Martinez is absorbing 3.76 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. His grappling is decent at best, averaging 0.44 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 41% and a takedown defense of 69%.
Martinez is the clear favorite in this fight, and looks to be the right side. He is in far better form, winning his last 6 fights in a row, while Jose Aldo is just 3-3 over his last 6 fights. Martinez also has the edge in striking, so backing Martinez to win will be our play.
Vitor Petrino Win by Finish over Anthony Smith (-150)
Vitor Petrino comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-0 and he is 5-0 in the UFC. He is averaging 2.74 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Petrino is absorbing 2.49 strikes and has a striking defense of 45%. His grappling has been elite so far, averaging 3.86 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 0.8 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 68% and a takedown defense of 71%.
Petrino is one of the biggest favorites on this card, therefore backing his money line is too risky. Instead, we will be looking for how Petrino will win this fight. He has won 8 of his 11 career fights by finish, while Anthony Smith has lost a total of 15 times by finish. Petrino has won 2 of his last 3 fights by finish, therefore backing the same here will be our play.
Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria – Fight to End by KO/TKO (-200)
Michel Pereira is a massive favorite, making his money line not worth a play. Instead, we will focus on a method of victory. Ihor Potieria has seen 13 of his 25 career fights end by KO/TKO, which includes 5 of his last 6 fights in the UFC. Pereira has seen 12 fights in his career end by KO/TKO, including 1 of his last 2. Because both fighters have a ton of power to end this fight quickly, backing this fight to end by KO/TKO will be the lean.
You can also read our expert’s UFC 301 best bets
