Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 301 takes place on Saturday at the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This card features a flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg as the Main Event. Here are our best bets for this UFC card, which will include 1 fight on the Main Card and 2 fights on the Preliminary Card.
Be sure to also check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the UFC 301 Main Card fights.
UFC 301 Main Card Best Bet
Caio Borralho Win by Decision over Paul Craif (+175)
The second fight on the Main Card at UFC 301 will see Paul Craig take on Caio Borralho in the UFC Middleweight division. Craig comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-7-1 and he is 9-7-1 in the UFC. Craig is averaging 2.42 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. He is absorbing 2.86 strikes and has a striking defense of 45%. Craig also has solid grappling, averaging 1.76 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.6 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 22% and a takedown defense of 37%.
Borralho comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-1 and he is 7-0 in the UFC. Borralho is averaging 2.73 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 58%. He is absorbing 1.98 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling has also been solid, averaging 2.16 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Borralho’s takedown accuracy is 63% and his takedown defense is 57%.
Borralho is another overwhelming favorite on this card, so we will be looking to target him to by decision. He has won 5 of his 7 UFC fights by decision, including 3 of his last 4 fights. Because of that, backing Borralho to win by decision will be our best bet.
UFC 301 Preliminary Card Best Bets
Jack Shore ML over Joanderson Brito (+140)
Jack Shore comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-1 and he is 6-1 in the UFC. Shore is averaging 3.84 significant strikes per minute, and has a striking accuracy of 58%. He is absorbing 2.20 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. Shore is also an elite grappler, averaging 3.42 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 40% and his takedown defense is 79%.
Joanderson Brito is the decent-sized favorite in this fight, but Shore looks to be a solid option to pull the upset. He has the edge in striking and his grappling is also comparable to that of Brito’s. Based on the fact that Shore has only lost once in the UFC, backing him to win will be our best bet.
Elves Brener vs. Myktybek Orolbai – Fight to go the Distance – No (-115)
Myktybek Orolbai is the large favorite, but instead we will be looking for this fight to end inside the distance. Elves Brener has seen 14 of his 19 career fight end inside the distance, including 4 of his last 5 fights. As for Orolbai, he has seen 11 of his 14 career fights end inside the distance — including 6 of his last 7. Because both fighters have a high finish rate, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our best bet.
Be sure to also check our our UFC 301 four-fight parlay with odds of +545
