Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 296 takes place on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a welterweight title fight between Colby Covington and Leon Edwards as the Main Event and Alexandre Pantoja against Brandon Royval for the flyweight title as the Co-Main Event. Here are our best bets for this UFC card.
Be sure to also check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the Main Card fights.
UFC 296 Preliminary Card Best Bets
Bryce Mitchell Win by Submission or Decision over Josh Emmett (-200)
The featured preliminary fight at UFC 296 will see Josh Emmett take on Bryce Mitchell. This will be a fight in the UFC featherweight division. Mitchell comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-2. He is 7-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Dan Ige by unanimous decision back in September of this year. Mitchell is averaging 2.34 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 58%. He is absorbing 1.64 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. His grappling has been much more prominent, averaging 3.51 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.6 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 41% and his takedown defense is 33%.
Emmett comes into this fight with an MMA record of 18-4. He is 9-4 in the UFC, most recently losing to Ilia Topuria by unanimous decision back in June of this year. Emmett is averaging 4.07 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 36%. He is absorbing 4.66 strikes and has a striking defense of 61%. His grappling is decent as well, averaging 0.92 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 37% and his takedown defense is 46%.
For this fight, we will be looking at Mitchell to win by submission or decision. All 16 of his career wins have come by these two methods, therefore backing the same here will be our best bet.
Casey O’Neil ML over Ariane Lipski (-185)
Casey O’Neil comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-1. She is 4-1 in the UFC, most recently losing to Jennifer Maia by unanimous decision back in March of this year. O’Neil is averaging 8.77 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. She is absorbing 5.90 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. Her grappling is also very good, averaging 1.96 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy is 42% and her takedown defense is 71%.
O’Neil is a heavy favorite, but considering she is in much better form and has the superior striking and grappling, backing her to win will be our best bet.
Martin Buday vs. Shamil Gaziev (-135)
Martin Buday comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-1. He is 5-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Josh Parisian by submission back in August of this year. Buday is averaging 5.62 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. He is absorbing 5.40 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%.
Buday is a small favorite, but with this being the UFC debut for Shamil Gaziev, backing Buday to keep his undefeated UFC record will be our best bet.
You can also read our UFC 296 four-fight parlay at odds of +489
