Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 295 takes place on Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. This card features a light heavyweight title fight between Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira as the Main Event.
I’m sharing my UFC 295 best bets here, but you can also head over to our UFC predictions for picks on every Main Card and Preliminary Card fight. Let’s get into the best bets to be made on Saturday’s card.
UFC 295 Main Card best bets
Jiri Prochazka ML over Alex Pereira (+100)
Jiri Prochazka comes into this fight with an MMA record of 29-3-1. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Glover Teixeira by submission back in June of 2022. Prochazka is averaging 5.77 significant strikes per minute, and has a striking accuracy of 55%. He is absorbing 5.40 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 40%. He has shown limited grappling ability in the UFC so far, averaging 0.38 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 100% and his takedown defense is 68%.
Alex Pereira is a small favorite to win the light heavyweight title, but Prochazka looks to be the better option. Prochazka has won 28 of his 29 career fights by finish, and has not lost since 2015. He also has the better striking and has slightly better grappling, therefore backing Prochazka to win back his title will be our best bet.
Tom Aspinall ML over Sergei Pavlovich (-125)
Tom Aspinall comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-3. He is 6-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Marcin Tybura by KO/TKO back in July of this year. Aspinall is averaging 7.65 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 66%. He is absorbing 2.90 strikes and has a striking defense of 65%. His grappling is also very solid, averaging 3.70 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.9 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 100% and his takedown defense is also 100%.
This fight is basically even with Aspinall listed as the small favorite. He does look to be the right side though based on how balanced he is. Sergei Pavlovich does have the advantage in striking, but Aspinall has superior grappling. The only loss for Aspinall was when he suffered a gruesome knee injury, but he looks to be fully healthy given his recent comeback. For that reason, backing Aspinall to win will be our best bet.
Pat Sabatini ML over Diego Lopes (-125)
Pat Sabatini comes into this fight with an MMA record of 18-4. He is 5-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Lucas Almeida by submission back in June of this year. Sabatini is averaging 1.95 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 59%. He is absorbing 1.35 strikes and has a striking defense of 51%. His grappling has been solid so far, averaging 3.83 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.9 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 45% and has a takedown defense of 42%.
Sabatini is only a small favorite, but because he has the superior grappling and has only lost 1 time in his last 8 fights, backing Sabatini to win this fight will be our best bet.
You can also read our UFC 295 4-fight parlay
