Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 294 takes place on Saturday at the Etihad Arena on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. This card features a lightweight title fight between Islam Makhachev and Alexander Volkanovski as the Main Event.
Here is my favorite UFC parlay for this card, with odds of +419 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC predictions for all of the Preliminary and Main Card fights.
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker – Over 1.5 Rounds (-166)
Magomed Ankalaev is a huge favorite to win this fight, but his money line is likely not worth the risk. Instead, I’m targeting the total rounds in this fight. Ankalaev has seen each of his last five UFC fights go over 1.5 rounds. Even though Johnny Walker has been seeing his fights end much quicker, Ankalaev has only lost by finish once in his career. Because of that, backing this fight to go over 1.5 rounds is the smart play.
Ikram Aliskerov Win by Finish over Warlley Alves (-250)
Ikram Aliskerov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-1. He is 2-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Phil Hawes by KO/TKO back in May of this year. Aliskerov is averaging 6.25 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 60%. He is absorbing 7.88 strikes and has a striking defense of 40%. His grappling has been elite thus far, averaging 3.47 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 3.5 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 33%.
Aliskerov is one of the biggest favorites on this card, therefore backing his money line is too risky. Instead, I will be looking at how Aliskerov will win this fight. He has win 10 times by finish in his career, including 5 of his last 6 fights and both of his UFC fights. On the other side, Warlley Alves has lost 2 of his last 4 fights by finish. As such, backing Aliskerov to win by finish is the move.
Said Nurmagomedov ML over Muin Gafurov (-225)
Said Nurmagomedov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-3. He is 6-2 in the UFC, most recently losing to Jonathan Martinez by unanimous decision back in march of this year. Nurmagomedov is averaging 3.54 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47%. He is absorbing 2.15 strikes and has a striking defense of 56%. His grappling is also solid, averaging just 1.03 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same time period. Nurmagomedov’s takedown accuracy is 16% and his takedown defense is 65%.
Nurmagomedov is the clear favorite, but still looks to be the right side. He has the superior striking and has a solid takedown defense, which should nullify Gafurov’s grappling advantage. Because of that, backing Nurmagomedov will be my play.
Tim Elliot vs. Muhammad Mokaev – Over 2.5 Rounds (-166)
Muhammad Mokaev is a huge favorite in this fight, so instead of a money line bet I will look at a total rounds prop. Tim Elliot has seen his last 5 fights go over 2.5 rounds, while Mokaev has seen each of his last 3 fights do the same. Based on this, we should expect a long fight and therefore backing over 2.5 rounds will be the lean.
You can also read our UFC 294 Best Bets
