Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 294 takes place on Saturday at the Etihad Arena on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. This card features a lightweight title fight between Islam Makhachev and Alexander Volkanovski as the Main Event.
I’m sharing my UFC 294 best bets here, but you can also head over to our UFC predictions for picks on every Preliminary and Main Card fight. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
UFC 294 Main Card best bets
Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski – Fight to go the Distance – No (-110)
The Main Event at UFC 294 will see Islam Makhachev take on Alexander Volkanovski in the UFC lightweight division. It will also be a fight for the UFC lightweight title and a rematch from UFC 284.
Makhachev is the significant favorite to reclaim his lightweight title, but Volkanovski is a guy who can never be counted out. Because of that, I will be looking for this fight to end inside the distance. Makhachev has seen five of his last six UFC fights end inside the distance, while Volkanovski has seen 2 of his last 4 UFC fights do the same. This rematch should be more fast-paced than the first fight, therefore backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
Khamzat Chimaev Win by Finish over Kamaru Usman (-115)
Khamzat Chimaev comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-0. He is 6-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Nate Diaz by submission back in September of this year. He is averaging 7.30 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 59%. He is absorbing 3.98 strikes and has a striking defense of 41%. His grappling has also been elite, averaging 3.98 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 3.5 submission attempts during the same time period. Chimaev has a takedown accuracy of 57% and his takedown defense is 100%.
Chimaev is a heavy favorite in this fight and as good as Usman has been, he has struggled for consistency recently. Chimaev has won 11 of his 12 career fights by finish, and has the superior striking and grappling. For that reason, backing Chimaev to win by finish will be the pick.
UFC 294 Preliminary Card best bet
Nathaniel Wood Win by Decision over Muhammad Naimov (+100)
Nathaniel Wood comes into this fight 20-5. He is 7-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Andre Fili by unanimous decision back in July of this year. Wood is averaging 6.24 strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. He is absorbing 4.35 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. Wood is also a solid grappler, averaging 1.70 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 54% and his takedown defense is 76%.
Wood is the heavy favorite, but given several of his recent fights I will be targeting the method for how he might win this fight. Wood has won 4 of his last 5 UFC fights by decision, including his last 3 fights in a row. Furthermore, Muhammad Naimov has never lost by finish — therefore backing Wood by decision is the play.
You can also read our UFC 294 4-fight parlay
