Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 293 takes place on Saturday at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. This card features a middleweight title fight between Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite UFC parlay for this card, with odds of +354 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 293 predictions for all of the Main Card and Preliminary Card fights.
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Israel Adesanya vs Sean Strickland – Fight to go the Distance – No (-150)
Israel Adesanya is the overwhelming favorite, making his money line not worth a play. Instead, we will target this fight to end inside the distance. Adesanya has seen 17 of his 26 career fights end inside the distance, which includes each of his last 2 fights, while Sean Strickland has seen 17 of his 32 career fights also end inside the distance, including his most recent fight. For that reason, also backing this fight to end inside the distance will be our play.
Tai Tuivasa vs Alexander Volkov – Fight to end by KO/TKO (-280)
Tai Tuivasa comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-5. He is 8-5 in the UFC, most recently losing to Sergei Pavlovich by KO/TKO back in December of 2022. Tuivasa is averaging 4.10 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49%. He is absorbing 4.46 strikes and has a striking defense of 45%. Tuivasa has not shown any grappling ability, and has a takedown defense of 52%.
Volkov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 36-10. He is 10-4 in the UFC, most recently losing to Alexandr Romanov by KO/TKO back in March of this year. Volkov is averaging 4.89 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. He is absorbing 3.00 strikes and has a striking defense of 53%. His grappling is not as strong, averaging just 0.51 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 70% and his takedown defense is 73%.
Alexander Volkov is a heavy in this fight, but looking at how this fight will end will be our focus. Volkov has seen 26 of his 46 career fights end by KO/TKO, including his last 2 fights in a row. Tai Tuivasa has seen 16 of his 19 career fights end by KO/TKO, which includes his last 7 fights in a row. Given that most of their fights end this way, also backing this fight to end by KO/TKO will be our play.
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Tyson Pedro vs Anton Turkalj – Fight to go the Distance – No (-250)
This is the most even fight on the card, and both guys look to have an equal chance to win. Instead, we will simply focus on this fight ending inside the distance. Tyson Pedro has seen 11 of his 13 career fights end inside the distance, while Anton Turkalj has seen 8 of his 10 fights do the same. With both fighters having a high finish rate, backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be our play.
Jack Jenkins ML over Jose Mariscal (-205)
Jack Jenkins comes into this fight with an MMA record of 12-2. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Jamall Emmers by split decision back in June of this year. Jenkins is averaging 4.34 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 61%. He is absorbing 2.79 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling has also been elite, averaging 3.03 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 75% and his takedown defense is 81%.
Jenkins is the heavy favorite, but simply looks to be the right side. They have similar striking volume, but Jenkins has been better at avoiding damage. On top of that, his takedown accuracy and defense is superior. For that reason, backing Jenkins to win will be our play.
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