Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 278 takes place on Saturday at the Vivant Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah. This card features a welterweight title fight between Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards as the Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC 278 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC 278 predictions for picks for each fight on the main and preliminary card. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
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UFC 278 Main Card Best Bet
Merab Dvalishvili ML (-130) over Jose Aldo
Merab Dvalishvili comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-4. He is 7-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Marlon Moraes by KO/TKO back in September of 2021. Dvalishvili is averaging 4.26 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 41%. He is absorbing 2.28 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling is elite, averaging 7.30 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 45% and a takedown defense of 78%.
Jose Aldo has won 3 fights in a row, but has still been inconsistent recently, just 3-3 in his last 6 fights and 5-5 in his last 10 fights. Meanwhile, Dvalishvili has won 7 fights in a row in the UFC and has the superior grappling and striking. For that reason, backing Dvalishvili to continue to rise in the UFC will be the play.
Make sure you also read our UFC 278 four-fight parlay (+573 odds!)
UFC 278 Preliminary Best Bets
Alexandr Romanov Win by Finish (+100) over Marcin Tybura
Alexandr Romanov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-0. He is 5-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Chase Sherman by submission back in April of this year. Romanov is averaging 4.23 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52%. He is absorbing 1.35 strikes and has a striking defense of 43%. His grappling has been elite so far, averaging 6.46 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.6 submission attempts during the same time period. Romanov has a takedown accuracy of 69%, but a takedown defense of 20%.
Romanov is a big favorite in this fight, which is warranted based on the fact that he is undefeated in his MMA career. He has won 15 fights by finish, including 4 of his 5 UFC fights, so for that reason, backing him to do the same here will be the play.
Amir Albazi vs Francisco Figueiredo – Fight to go the Distance – No (-105)
Amir Albazi comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-1. Albazi is averaging 4.06 significant strikes per minute, and has a striking accuracy of 40%. His grappling has already been excellent, averaging 2.28 takedowns per every 15 minutes.
Francisco Figueiredo comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-4-1. Figueiredo is averaging 1.98 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 60%. His grappling will be the key here, averaging 2.88 takedowns per every 15 minutes.
Albazi is a massive favorite in this fight, but the submission ability of Figueiredo keeps him as a live dog. One thing that is consistent with both fighters is their finishing ability. Albazi has seen 12 of his 15 career fights end inside the distance, while Figueiredo has seen 13 of his 18 career fights do the same. They both have a unique ability to win by submission, therefore backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.
UFC 278 Promo Codes & Sportsbook Bonuses
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