Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
UFC 277 takes place on Saturday at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. This card features a women’s bantamweight title fight between Julianna Pena and Amanda Nunes as the Main Event and an interim flyweight title fight between Brandon Moreno and Kai Kara-France as the Co-Main Event.
We are sharing our UFC 277 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC 277 predictions page for picks for each fight on the main and preliminary card. Let’s get into our best bets for Saturday’s card.
UFC 277 Main Card Best Bets
Sergei Pavlovich ML (-145) over Derrick Lewis
Sergei Pavlovich comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-1. He is 3-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Shamil Abdurakhimov by KO/TKO back in March of this year. Pavlovich is averaging 6.08 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50%. He is absorbing 4.45 strikes and has a striking defense of 46%. He has still not shown any grappling ability but does have a takedown defense of 66%.
There is no mistaking the power of Derrick Lewis, but Pavlovich has proven that he has just as much power if not more. There is also the fact that he has lost just once by KO/TKO in his career, while Lewis has lost 6 times by KO/TKO, which makes his chin a concern for this fight. Pavlovich also looks to be more of an up-and-coming fighter, while Lewis is near the end of his career, therefore backing Pavlovich to win will be the play.
Magomed Ankalaev vs Anthony Smith: Fight to go the Distance – No (+100)
Magomed Ankalaev is one of the biggest favorites on the entire card and while he looks to be the right side, backing his money line is far too much of a risk. Anthony Smith has won 3 fights in a row and all by finish, so while Ankalaev has seen his last 3 fights go the distance, there is still the fact that he has won half his fights by KO/TKO. Smith has seen 47 of his 52 career fights end by finish, therefore backing this fight to end inside the distance looks to be worth a play.
Make sure you also read our UFC 277 four-fight parlay (+477 odds!)
UFC 277 Preliminary Card Best Bet
Don’Tale Mayes vs Hamdy Abdelwahab – Fight to end by KO/TKO (-135)
Don’Tale Mayes comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-4. He is 4-3 in the UFC, most recently beating Josh Parisian by KO/TKO back in back in December of 2021. Mayes is averaging 3.75 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. He is absorbing 3.83 strikes and has a striking defense of 42%. His grappling has been decent, averaging 1.32 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 53% and his takedown defense is 62%.
Hamdy Abdelwahab comes into this fight with an MMA record of 5-0. He has won all 5 of his fights by KO/TKO, already proving to have a ton of power. Not only have all his wins been by KO/TKO, but 4 of them have come in the 1st round, so he will likely be looking for a quick finish.
Mayes is a large favorite which is likely warranted due to the fact that Hamdy Abdelwahab has not fought in the UFC. However, given the fact that Abdelwahab has seen all of his fights end by KO/TKO and Mayes has seen 6 of his 13 fights end by the same method, backing this fight to also end by KO/TKO looks to be worth a bet.
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