UFC 266 predictions: Four-fight parlay (+1138 odds)

UFC 266 takes place on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will feature a featherweight title fight as the main event.

Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for UFC 266 that pays at odds of +1138. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 266 predictions for the full 13-fight card.

Alexander Volkanovski ML (-175) vs Brian Oretega

Alexander Volkanovski comes into this fight with an MMA record of 22-1. He is 9-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Max Holloway by split decision in July 2020. Volkanovski is averaging 6.02 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 55%. He is absorbing 3.31 and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 2.09 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 34% and his takedown defense is 72%.

Brian Ortega certainly deserves this title shot with the way he has been performing, but Volkanovski still looks to be much too strong. He has better striking and grappling, so backing Volkanovski to retain his title belt will be the play.

Merab Dvalishvili win by decision (+115) vs Marlon Moraes

Merab Dvalishvili comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-4. He is 6-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Cody Stamann by unanimous decision in May. Dvalishvili is averaging 4.02 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 39%. He is absorbing 2.22 strikes and has a striking defense of 61%. His grappling is elite, averaging 7.38 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 43% and a takedown defense of 78%.

Dvalishvili looks to be the right side here, but his money line is a bit too high. He has won all of his UFC fights by decision and the same looks to be likely this time. Dvalishvili has the grappling to control this fight on the ground, so backing a win by decision will be the play.

Dan Hooker ML (-150) vs Nasrat Haqparast

Dan Hooker comes into this fight with an MMA record of 20-10. He is 10-6 in the UFC, most recently losing to Michael Chandler by TKO/KO in January. Hooker is averaging 4.95 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 4.92 strikes and has a striking defense of 51%. His grappling is not the greatest though, averaging just 0.72 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 34% and his takedown defense is 79%.

Hooker has lost 2 fights in a row, and if he ever wants to challenge for the lightweight title again, this is probably a must-win bout. So, while Haqparast has been good, asking him to beat a guy like Hooker looks to be too much. For that reason, backing Hooker will be the play.

Chris Daukaus win by TKO/KO (+120) vs Shamil Abdurakhimov

Chris Daukaus comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-3. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Aleksei Oleinik by TKO/KO in February. Daukaus is averaging 11.78 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 61%. He is absorbing 3.22 strikes and has a striking defense of 65%. He has not shown any grappling ability so far, but has a takedown defense of 100%.

Daukaus has won all his UFC fights by TKO/KO and all 3 have come in the first round. His high-volume striking should be able to produce a similar result, so backing Daukaus to win by TKO/KO will be the top play.