Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 264 is happening in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, featuring a huge lightweight fight as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite four-fight parlay for UFC 264 that pays at odds of +592. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 264 predictions for the full 13-fight card.
Stephen Thompson ML (-160) vs. Gilbert Burns
Stephen Thompson comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-4-1. He is 11-4-1 in the UFC, most recently coming off a win by unanimous decision over Geoff Neal in December 2020.
Thompson is averaging 4.24 significant strikes per minute and is landing them with an accuracy of 43 percent. He is absorbing 2.80 strikes and has a striking defense of 58 percent. His grappling is not as great, averaging 0.32 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is only 45 percent, but his takedown defense is 78 percent.
Both of these guys have been around for a while, but I like Thompson in this spot. He looked incredible in his fight with Neal and although Gilbert Burns was fighting the welterweight champion, he was lacking power. Thompson’s striking looks to be the difference here though, so backing him to win his third fight in a row will be my play.
Max Griffin ML (-200) vs. Carlos Condit
Max Griffin comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-8. He is 5-6 in the UFC, most recently beating Song Kenan by TKO/KO in March. Griffin is averaging 4.14 strikes per minute, landing them with an accuracy of 48 percent. He absorbs 3.94 strikes and has a striking defense of 56 percent.
Griffin also has some ability to fight on the ground, averaging 1.70 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 51 percent and his takedown defense is 66 percent.
This appears to be one of the more lacking fights with both fighters looking inconsistent at times. Griffin has been better recently, winning his last two fights by TKO/KO, so I will back him to get the job done.
Michel Pereira ML (-165) vs. Niko Price
Michel Pereira comes into this fight with an MMA record of 25-11. He is 3-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Khaos Williams by unanimous decision in December 2020. He is averaging 3.74 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 54 percent.
Pereira is absorbing 2.84 strikes and has a striking defense of 58 percent. He is also a solid grappler, averaging 1.76 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 70 percent and his takedown defense is 100 percent.
This difference in this fight looks to be the grappling ability for Pereira. He appears to be a much more balanced fighter, while Niko Price has not actually tasted victory since 2019. For that reason, I like Pereira to win.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Trevin Giles – Fight to go the distance – No (-130)
Trevin Giles comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-2. He is 5-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Roman Dolidze by unanimous decision in March. Giles is averaging 3.26 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 56 percent. He is absorbing 1.88 strikes and has a striking defense of 62 percent.
Dricus Du Plessis comes into this fight 1-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Markus Perez by TKO/KO in his UFC debut in October 2020. He is averaging 7.72 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44 percent. He is absorbing 4.16 strikes and has a striking defense of 67 percent.
Du Plessis was impressive in his UFC debut and his striking looks to be a real difference maker. Though five of Giles’ seven UFC fights have ended inside the distance and Du Plessis has seen every single one of his professional fights do the same. For that reason, I will be backing this fight to be fast-paced and will look for a finish.
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