Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 263 is happening in Glendale, Arizona this week, featuring two title fights with the middleweight title contest as the Main Event.
Here is our favorite four-fight parlay for UFC 263 that pays at odds of +564. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 263 predictions for the full 14-fight card.
Belal Muhammad money line (-225) vs. Demian Maia
Belal Muhammad comes into this fight 9-3 in the UFC, most recently seeing his fight with Leon Edwards declared a no contest due to an eye poke. Muhammad is averaging 4.75 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43 percent. He is absorbing 4.02 strikes and has a striking defense of 60 percent. His grappling is very good as well, averaging 1.97 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of only 28 percent, but his takedown defense is 85 percent.
Muhammad will look to take the next step in his career by beating one of the UFC veterans in Demian Maia. He has a much higher striking output than Maia and has been able to stop takedowns majority of the time. Maia is clearly on the back end of his career, so back Muhammed to win.
Paul Craig vs. Jamahal Hill – Fight to go the distance – No (-275)
Jamahal Hill comes into this fight 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Ovince Saint Preux by TKO/KO in December 2020. He is averaging 7.90 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 52 percent. He is absorbing 3.15 strikes and has a striking defense of 49 percent.
Paul Craig comes into this fight 6-4-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Mauricio Rua by TKO/KO. Craig is averaging 2.40 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 49 percent. He is absorbing 2.43 strikes and has a striking defense of 43 percent. Craig will likely want to grapple, as he averages 2.11 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.5 submission attempts during the same time period. He has a takedown accuracy of 26 percent and a takedown defense of 55 percent.
Both of these fighters are excellent finishers. Two of Hill’s three UFC fights have ended inside the distance and ten of Craig’s 11 UFC fights have done the same. Craig has shown he can win by TKO/KO or submission, while Hill has tremendous knockout power. For that reason, we should look for this fight to end inside the distance.
Brad Riddell Money Line (+125) vs. Drew Dober
Brad Riddell comes into his fight against Drew Dober with an MMA record of 9-1. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Alex Da Silva by unanimous decision in September 2020. Riddell is averaging 4.36 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 50 percent. He is absorbing 2.62 strikes and has a striking defense of 53 percent. His grappling is decent, averaging 1.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes.
Riddell has been very impressive in his UFC career. His striking seems to be a little better and Dober does not seem to be great on the ground. Riddell has a great chance to stay perfect in the UFC and is worth backing as an underdog.
Pannie Kianzad Money Line (-200) vs. Alexis Davis
Pannie Kianzad comes into her fight against Alexis Davis with a 3-2 record in the UFC, having won three fights in a row. Her most recent win came against Sijara Eubanks in December 2020 by unanimous decision. Kianzad is averaging 5.14 significant strikes per minute and is landing them with an accuracy of 49 percent. She is absorbing 3.62 strikes and has a striking defense of 57 percent.
Kianzad will be looking to extend her win streak to four fights, and she can get the job done. Her striking can make the difference.
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