Matthew Lowrimore
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We are in Jacksonville, Florida this week for UFC 261. Our event this week will feature three title fights with a Welterweight title fight for the Main Event. There are some huge favorites among this event, so looking for a parlay could be the best way to find the most value.
Here is our favorite four-fight parlay that pays at odds of +569. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 261 predictions for the full 13-fight card.
Jimmy Crute Money Line (-200)
Jimmy Crute comes into this fight 5-1 in the UFC after beating Modestas Bukauskas by TKO/KO back in October of 2020. Crute is averaging 4.36 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57 percent. He is absorbing 2.31 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 54 percent. Crute is also averaging 4.33 takedowns per every 15 minutes and has a takedowns accuracy of 75 percent. He defends takedowns 60 percent of the time, while also averaging 2.4 submission attempts per every 15 minutes.
Anthony Smith has been far too inconsistent here to trust. Crute has looked solid in all but one of his UFC fights and even at the current price, I like Crute to control this fight with his balanced style and will win handily.
Chris Weidman vs. Uriah Hall Fight to go the Distance – No (-125)
Chris Weidman comes into this fight with a UFC record of 11-5. Weidman is averaging 3.03 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 43 percent. He is absorbing 3.15 strikes and has a striking defense of 52 percent. His grappling is also very solid, averaging 3.93 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 47 percent and his takedown defense is 65 percent.
Uriah Hall comes into this fight 9-7 in the UFC. Hall is averaging 3.34 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 51 percent. He is absorbing 3.54 strikes and has a striking defense of 53 percent. His grappling is less than impressive though, averaging 0.67 takedowns per every 15 minutes and landing them 38 percent of the time. He is defending takedowns 67 percent of the time, which should help him here as well.
Hall has seen six of his last seven fights in the UFC end inside the distance and Weidman has seen eight of his last nine fights do the same. Because of the knockout power both fighters have, that will be my play in this fight.
Brendan Allen Money Line (-160)
Brendan Allen comes into this fight with an MMA record of 15-4. He is 4-1 in the UFC and suffered his first UFC loss last time out against Sean Strickland. Allen is averaging 3.55 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 59 percent. He is absorbing 4.57 strikes and has a striking defense of 39 percent. Allen’s grappling is decent, averaging 1.17 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 37 percent and a takedown defense of 50 percent. He also is averaging 2.0 submission attempts per every 15 minutes.
Karl Roberson does have the ability to win by submission, but he is vulnerable to this method as well. All his losses in the UFC have come by submission, making me hesitant to back him here. With Roberson being just an average striker, I think Allen will be able to control this fight. He has two wins by submission in the UFC, but with his ability to win in several ways, backing his money line will be my play.
Danaa Batgerel Money Line (-190)
Danaa Batgerel comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-2. He is 1-1 in the UFC after winning his last fight against Guido Canneti by TKO/KO. Batgerel is averaging 5.66 significant strikes per every minute and has a striking accuracy of 38 percent. He is absorbing 2.61 strikes and has a striking defense of 58 percent.
The lack of accuracy shown by Kevin Natividad is the most concerning part of this fight. If he cannot land strikes, there is no way he should be able to win this fight. Batgerel is a much better striker and I believe that is going to be the biggest difference here. Plus, he does not absorb much damage anyway, therefore backing Batgerel on the money line will be my play.
