Matthew Lowrimore
Show Bio
We are back in Las Vegas this week for UFC 259. Our event this week will feature a Light Heavyweight title fight for the Main Event. There are some huge favorites among this event, so looking for a parlay could be the best way to find the most value.
Here is our favorite four-fight parlay that pays at odds of +579. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 259 predictions for the full 15-fight card.
Uros Medic Money Line (-177)
Uros Medic comes into this fight with an MMA record of 6-0. He will make his official UFC debut here after earning his contract at a Dana White’s Contender Series event back in November of 2020. He won this fight by KO/TKO in the first round. Medic is now averaging 14.55 significant strikes per minute and lands them with a striking accuracy of 88 percent. He is absorbing just 0.91 strikes and has a striking defense of 83 percent.
The only way I can bet this fight would be a win for Medic. He has looked like the real deal so far, and has won every single fight by finish. Even knowing Medic has a perfect finish rate, I am going to just back this money line.
Sean Brady Money Line (-215)
Sean Brady comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-0. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Christian Aguilera by submission back in August of 2020. Brady also has very solid striking, averaging 5.44 significant strikes with a striking accuracy of 55 percent. He does absorb 4.35 strikes per minute, but his 61 percent striking defense helps him to avoid damage and thus far, he has never lost. His grappling is starting to look elite, averaging 3.26 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He also averages 1.2 submission attempts during the same time period. Brady’s takedown accuracy is 57 percent and his takedown defense is 100 percent.
Brady has been flawless so far and I do not see anything changing just yet. Jake Matthews has already shown he struggles when stepping up in competition, so I will back Brady to get a big win here and continue his quest for a title shot.
Carlos Ulberg Money Line (-250)
Carlos Ulberg will make his official UFC debut after winning by KO in a Dana White Contender Series event back in November of 2020. He is now 5-0 in MMA and is averaging 4.92 significant strikes per minute. He also has a striking accuracy of 45 percent. Ulberg is averaging 3.44 strikes per minute, but his 66 percent striking defense is going to help him avoid the power shots from Kennedy Nzechukwu.
I think the long layoff for Nzechukwu is going to play a huge factor here and will lead to Ulberg dominating this fight. His ability to avoid damage looks to be the difference, so backing Ulberg to win will be my play.
Dominick Cruz Money Line (+110)
Dominick Cruz comes into this fight with an MMA record of 22-3. He is 12-3 in the UFC, but is coming off two straight losses. One of those losses came back in 2016 and then after a near four-year layoff, he lost to Henry Cejudo back in May of 2020. Cruz is averaging 3.52 significant strikes per minute, but his accuracy is lacking at 32 percent. He does only absorb 2.28 strikes and has a striking defense of 73 percent. So, even though he lost to Cejudo by TKO/KO, it could be argued that the referee called the fight a bit early. Cruz will look more so to grappling, where he averages 3.05 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown defense of 48 percent and a takedown defense of 83 percent.
There is no doubt that Kenney is improving with every fight. However, now that Cruz is fully back after his layoff, I think he will be able to get back in the win column. He has a bit better defense, which I believe will help him pull off the small upset.
