Ricky Dimon
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Quarterfinal spots at the U.S. Open will start to be handed out on Sunday, when Novak Djokovic returns to the court after going 5 sets with fellow Serb Laslo Djere in his last match. A whole host of Americans will also be in fourth-round action, including Tommy Paul, Ben Shelton, Frances Tiafoe, Taylor Fritz and Coco Gauff.
As we approach the business end of the tournament, my picks are heating up at just the right time. I’m on a 6-0 best bet run following 3-0 perfection on Friday and 3-0 day to Saturday. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on Day 7 of the year’s fourth and final Grand Slam, and also be sure to check out my best outright bets on both the men’s and women’s sides.
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Frances Tiafoe vs. Rinky Hijikata Over 34.5 games (-107)
Tiafoe is a heavy favorite, but there are reasons to think that Hijikata can be competitive enough to take this over a very small total. Although Tiafoe reached the U.S. Open semifinals in 2022 and has shown flashes of similar brilliance this season, he remains inconsistent. The 10th-ranked American won a grand total of 1 match combined in Toronto and Cincinnati. It should also be noted that he needed a fourth-set tiebreaker to get past Adrian Mannarino on Friday. Meanwhile, Hijikata is in the midst of his best season on tour and his U.S. Open run includes a 6-1, 6-2, 6-1 beatdown of Marton Fucsovics in round 2. The Aussie took a set off Rafael Nadal in Arthur Ashe stadium last summer; there is no reason why he can’t take at least 1 off Tiafoe.
Jelena Ostapenko +6.5 games over Iga Swiatek (-132)
I wouldn’t be shocked if Ostapenko wins this match outright. Swiatek predictably won the French Open again, but she lost in the Wimbledon quarterfinals (to Elina Svitolina) and failed to win either of the 2 hard-court Masters 1000 events in Montreal (lost to Jessica Pegula) and Cincinnati (lost to Coco Gauff). Even if Swiatek was in dominant form, Ostapenko would still be in with a chance. The mercurial Latvian fears no one. She is among the best ball-strikers on tour and can beat anyone on any given day if she is playing well. Now into the fourth round in New York, it’s clear that Ostapenko is playing well. Moreover, she is a surprising 3-0 lifetime in the head-to-head series against Swiatek — with wins in 2017 (Birmingham), 2021 (Indian Wells) and 2022 (Dubai). Getting 6.5 games should be more than enough for the underdog.
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Tommy Paul vs. Ben Shelton Over 39 games (-110)
It doesn’t require much more than simple math to figure out that this all-American showdown should go over the total. We need at least a 4-set match averaging 10 games per set. A 6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 scoreline would get the job done. Or 3 of the 4 sets are decided by 1 break, just 1 other set going to a tiebreaker would cash this play (something like 6-3, 3-6, 7-6, 6-3, for example). Shelton is a huge server (he had 26 aces in his last match, including one at 147 MPH) but not a great returner, so breaks of serve will likely be few and far between — thus giving every set or at least most sets a competitive scoreline. Paul and Shelton played in the Australian Open quarterfinals at the beginning of this season and it consisted of 44 games (7-6, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 in Paul’s favor). Expect more of the same in what could be the best match of the day.
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