Ricky Dimon
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The US Open – the fourth and final major of the tennis season – heads into round 3 on Friday. Things are starting to heat up in New York, where a blockbuster Friday lineup is headlined by a showdown between fellow Americans Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe. Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff are also taking the court. Let’s dive into the US Open best bets to be made for Day 5.
Ben Shelton ML over Frances Tiafoe (-146)
Get your popcorn ready for this huge rematch. Shelton and Tiafoe, 2 of the biggest stars in American tennis, faced each other in the US Open quarterfinals last summer — when Shelton prevailed in 4 sets. This time around it’s a third-round affair. Although the stage is a bit different, the result should stay the same. After all, Shelton has only improved since their meeting 12 months ago, whereas Tiafoe has seemingly taken a step back. Moreover, Shelton also beat his older compatriot in the Houston final this spring — thus improving to 2-0 lifetime in the head-to-head series. This match is on Shelton’s racket; he has the bigger serve and the more powerful all-around game. If he is on, there is not much Tiafoe will be able to do. Even as a slight favorite, the former University of Florida standout has good value.
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Paula Badosa -1.5 sets over Elena-Gabriela Ruse (-158)
Once #2 in the world, Paula Badosa was a serious Grand Slam title contender earlier in her career. A rash of injuries sent her on a downward spiral in recent seasons, but the resurgent Spaniard is back with a vengeance. She is still flying under the radar a bit since she is not too far into her comeback, but that gives her good betting value — both on the futures market and in individual matches. Badosa is a massive favorite on Friday, which does not make the money line particularly intriguing; the -1.5 set spread, however, is a strong play. She did not drop a set in the first 2 rounds and did not even get pushed to a tiebreaker. As for Elena-Gabriela Ruse, she is #122 in the rankings and plays better on clay than she does on hard courts.
Emma Navarro ML over Marta Kostyuk (-160)
I have been on the Navarro bandwagon all season long and there is no reason to get off it at this point. The 23-year-old American has been outstanding basically throughout the entirety of the 2024 campaign. The only thing missing heading into Wimbledon was a deep run at a major and she promptly advanced to the quarterfinals. Navarro could go even deeper in New York. She has home-court advantage in front of the American crowd and she is playing on her preferred hard-court surface. The former University of Virginia star has been dominant through 2 rounds, losing a total of 4 games. Moreover, she won her only previous meeting with Marta Kostyuk just a few weeks ago in Toronto — and did so in straight sets. Count on more of the same continuing on Friday.
