Ricky Dimon
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Round 3 of the U.S. Open gets underway on Friday, when Novak Djokovic and Iga Swiatek continue their title bids. Other than Djokovic, the bottom half of the men’s singles draw is lacking star power in a major way. As a result, there are huge opportunities for everyone in it and the stakes could not be higher.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on Day 5 of the year’s fourth and final Grand Slam. I’m off to bit of a lackluster start to the tournament, so I’m going back to the drawing board and keeping it simple with 3 enticing money line plays on Friday. Also, be sure to check out my best outright bets on both the men’s and women’s sides – and those are still in great shape!
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Tommy Paul ML over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (-133)
Tommy Paul leads the head-to-head series with Davidovich Fokina 2-0 and both of the American’s victories have come this season on hard courts (Australian Open and Indian Wells). There is no reason to think anything will change in this one. Paul has home-court advantage in the United States and is now a proven force at Grand Slams, having made a run to the Aussie Open semis in January. The world #14 needed 5 sets to get past Roman Safiullin on Wednesday evening, but it wasn’t an overly long match so Paul will have enough left in the tank to keep going at Flushing Meadows. He also came back from 2 sets to love down, so he is riding a ton of momentum. This probably won’t be easy (on paper it’s the best matchup of the day), but as a slight -133 favorite, the value is with Paul.
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Ben Shelton ML over Aslan Karatsev (-150)
Let’s roll with another American on Friday. Shelton capitalized on a dream draw to reach the Australian Open quarterfinals at the start of this season and he has another favorable road in New York. The 20-year-old cruised past Pedro Cachin in round 1 and then got a retirement from Dominic Thiem on Wednesday (Shelton led by a set and 1-0 in the second when Thiem called it quits). Now the former University of Florida star faces Karatsev, who has sputtered to #77 in the rankings and had been 3-7 in his last 10 matches prior to this fortnight. I think this will mostly be 1-way traffic for Shelton, who loves both the atmosphere and the playing conditions in New York City.
Dominic Stricker ML over Benjamin Bonzi (-136)
Stricker has been one of the highly touted prospects in the game for a while now and he is putting it all together at this U.S. Open. The left-hander from Switzerland opened with a straight-set rout of Alexei Popyrin and then picked up the biggest win of his career on Wednesday, when he upset Stefanos Tsitsipas in 5 sets. Bonzi had been a horrendous 2-9 in his last 11 matches heading into New York. The Frenchman did well to beat Chris Eubanks in round 2, but Eubanks has been struggling since his breakthrough at Wimbledon and he was also less than 100 percent physically (illness) in that match. Look for Stricker to keep the momentum rolling.
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