Ricky Dimon
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Round 2 of the U.S. Open continues on Thursday, when Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula resume their title bids after they all advanced easily in round 1. An especially intriguing matchup pits 3-time Grand Slam champion Andy Murray against Grigor Dimitrov.
Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on Day 4 of the year’s fourth and final Grand Slam, and also be sure to check out my best outright bets on both the men’s and women’s sides.
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Andy Murray ML over Grigor Dimitrov (+109)
This mouth-watering matchup almost didn’t come to fruition, as Dimitrov needed to engineer a borderline miracle comeback against Alex Molcan on Tuesday. Molcan led two sets to love and even after being pushed to a fifth set went up 5-3, 30-0. The Slovak also had a match point on Dimitrov’s serve with the Bulgarian serving at 4-5 and got a look at two more match points at 9-7 and 9-8 in the fifth-set tiebreaker. Nonetheless, Dimitrov prevailed after four hours and 40 minutes. Now the world #19 has to face Murray, who cruised past Corentin Moutet in straight sets. Murray leads the head-to-head series 8-3 and is in stellar form as he continues his comeback from a hip injury. The 2012 U.S. Open winner is the more rested player in this showdown and has enjoyed plenty of success against Dimitrov in the past.
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Nicolas Jarry -1.5 games over Alex Michelsen (-114)
Michelsen signed with the University of Georgia but decided to go play after he made a surprising run to the final of a grass-court tournament in Newport earlier this summer. The 19-year-old American has a lot of talent, but he has played only 11 matches on the main tour in his career. This is a matchup between two big guys and big hitters who play with similar styles. That’s not necessarily a good thing for Michelsen, because at this point in time Jarry does almost everything a little bit better. The 27-year-old Chilean is enjoying the best season of his career with a 28-13 record and two ATP titles, which has him up to 25th in the rankings. Jarry will likely be a little bit too tough both physically and mentally for the youngster.
Lesia Tsurenko ML over Ekaterina Alexandrova (+132)
This is the best number on the board among all of Thursday’s matches. Tsurenko is a considerable underdog despite sweeping the head-to-head series with Alexandrova 4-0. Three of the Ukrainian’s victories have come on hard courts, including 2 outdoors. She beat Alexandrova in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. What’s to say she won’t add a fifth consecutive win in a fifth consecutive year? Tsurenko is playing well this season and Alexandrova may be fatigued after reaching the Cleveland final last week (lost to Sara Sorribes Tormo) and surviving a three-set marathon against Leylah Fernandez on Tuesday. Let’s go ahead and back Tsurenko on the money line; the +2.5 game spread shouldn’t even be necessary.
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