Ricky Dimon
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Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe is a Grand Slam semifinal matchup that no one could have predicted, but – at least in American tennis circles – it is a huge one. This is the first all-American men’s singles semifinal matchup at the US Open since Andre Agassi beat Robby Ginepri in 2005. Either Fritz or Tiafoe will be the first American man to play in a slam final since Andy Roddick at Wimbledon in 2009.
On the other side of the draw, another surprising semifinalist in Jack Draper awaits a daunting task on Friday. Standing in his way of the title match is world #1 Jannik Sinner. Let’s take a look at the US best bets to be made for Fritz vs Tiafoe and Sinner vs Draper on the Day 12 schedule. I’m on a 7-1 run with my US Open predictions, so let’s keep that momentum going!
Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Under 40.5 games (-110)
I’m not sure if this develops into a 5-set classic that many American tennis fans probably want. There is a good chance that Fritz will simply be too good to let that happen. The world #12 is the better player in general and he has been the better player so far in New York, too. His run to the semis featured victories over Matteo Berrettini, Casper Ruud and Alexander Zverev – all 3 of whom are major finalists. Fritz is also dominating the head-to-head series 6-1, having reeled off 6 straight at Tiafoe’s expense since losing their first-ever encounter back in 2016. Over the span of their last 6 meetings dating back to 2022, Fritz has won 6 sets in a row.
Tiafoe is playing well, as he always seems to do in New York, but he has benefited from a favorable draw. Novak Djokovic exited the bottom quarter of the bracket with a third-round loss to Alexei Popyrin and then Tiafoe defeated Popyrin 2 days later. I like Fritz a lot here, but the under is arguably a safer play than – for example – Fritz’s game spread since it gives you another outlet in case the favorite gets tight mentally playing in his first Grand Slam semifinal.
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Jannik Sinner vs Jack Draper Under 6.5 service breaks (+100)
I’m banking on a relatively short match here. If it is, there will obviously be fewer opportunities for service breaks. Sinner is a huge favorite, and why not? He is the #1 player in the world and reigning Australian Open champion. His season record stands at an amazing 53-5 after defeating 2021 U.S. Open winner and 2-time runner-up Daniil Medvedev in 4 sets on Wednesday night. Draper has been crushing opponents in New York, but he has faced only one player ranked higher than #39 and that one guy is Alex de Minaur, who was compromised by a hip injury in the quarterfinals.
Even if Draper does make this somewhat close, the under should still be in good shape. If the 25th-ranked Brit is competitive, it probably means he is holding serve on a consistent basis – which is exactly what he has done this fortnight. Draper has been broken only 3 times through 5 rounds and has saved 25 of 28 break points. Meanwhile, Sinner is averaging just 2 service donations per match so far at this event. All signs point to Under 6.5 breaks being the smart play.
