Ricky Dimon
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The business end of the 2024 US Open tennis is upon us. While the men have the day off, each of the 2 women’s singles semifinal matches will be played on Thursday night. The lineup features Aryna Sabalenka facing Emma Navarro and Jessica Pegula going up against Karolina Muchova. Let’s take a look at the US Open best bets to be made on the Day 11 schedule, and whether we could see 2 American women advancing to the final.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Emma Navarro Under 5.5 service breaks (+110)
Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe being in the US Open semifinals has generated a ton of buzz mainly because of the host nation’s Grand Slam drought in men’s singles, but don’t sleep on the women. The United States has 2 first-time major semifinalists on its hands in the form of Pegula and Navarro. Unfortunately for Navarro, she has to face Sabalenka on Thursday night. Sabalenka has been the title favorite since the start of the tournament and she has looked every bit the part.
Navarro will be hard-pressed to even win 1 set; if she doesn’t, this match probably won’t last long enough to feature at least 6 service breaks. Sabalenka has played 5 matches so far this fortnight and in 3 of them was not broken a single time. Navarro is averaging fewer than 2 service donations per match through 5 rounds. It’s also worth noting that in 2 previous head-to-head encounters, they are averaging 5 total breaks. The value is on Under 5.5, especially at plus-money odds.
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Jessica Pegula ML over Karolina Muchova (-160)
Pegula is into her first Grand Slam semifinal and to say that it isn’t a fluke would be a gross understatement. One, the 30-year-old had advanced to quarterfinals on 6 previous occasions – more often than not losing to higher-ranked opponents at that stage. Two, Pegula has been in amazing form throughout this entire hard-court summer. She captured the Toronto title and finished runner-up in Cincinnati (lost to Sabalenka). The native New Yorker (and daughter of Buffalo Bills owner Terry Pegula) has remained red-hot this fortnight; she has not dropped a single set and only 1 set has been more competitive than 6-4. She erased world #1 Iga Swiatek 6-2, 6-4 on Wednesday night. Muchova is a formidable foe, but the Czech has played only 16 matches this entire season due to injury. Pegula is the much more reliable player from a physical standpoint, and she just beat Muchova in Cincinnati.
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