U.S. Open Tennis Day 1 predictions, picks & best bets: Bublik battles Thiem in marquee matchup

Alexander Bublik
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Ricky Dimon

Tennis

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports -- just about any and all you can think of! -- and coaching tennis in Atlanta, GA. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me. For Ricky Dimon media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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With Wimbledon in the rearview mirror, it’s on to the U.S. Open. I’ve hit +1000 and +1600 futures winners in 2 of the past 3 weeks and came within 1 win of cashing Jiri Lehecka at +1800 this past week in Winston-Salem. Let’s keep the momentum rolling into New York! 

The season’s fourth and final Grand Slam gets started on Monday, when Novak Djokovic and Iga Swiatek are among those taking the court. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made on the Day 1 schedule, and also be sure to check out my best outright bets for both the men’s singles and women’s singles

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Alexander Bublik vs Dominic Thiem Over 39.5 games (-110)

Alexander Bublik and Dominic Thiem have faced each other once before and it comfortably went over this 39.5 number, finishing with 43 games during Thiem’s 4-set victory at the 2019 French Open. Even on clay, the slowest of the 3 different surfaces, Thiem lost his serve only twice in the match. The Austrian is a considerable underdog against Bublik in round 1 of the U.S. Open, but he should at least manage to be competitive. Bublik’s return game is nothing special and it’s especially difficult to break serve on a relatively fast hard court – which is the situation at Flushing Meadows. Both of these guys are all over the place right now in terms of results, so I wouldn’t back either one on the money line or the game spread. This will likely be a rollercoaster ride, so the way to play it is the over. 

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Magdalena Frech ML over Emma Navarro (+135) 

Emma Navarro is the essence of a clay-court specialist. On a hard court she should be favored. In 2023 she has won 5 hard-court matches (5-6 record) while she has won 33 on clay (33-10 record). In her career, Navarro’s records are 26-33 on hard and 92-44 on clay. Magdalena Frech, has won 107 hard-court matches all time – including 12 already this year. That includes successful qualification for the main draw in Cleveland this past week and also successful qualification earlier this summer in Washington, D.C. and Montreal. Based on both current form and the surface, Frech will probably win this one outright. I wouldn’t even bother with taking the +2.5 games. 

Enzo Couacaud -2.5 games over Jiri Vesely (-114) 

Enzo Couacaud is a machine at qualifying for tournaments, especially Grand Slams. The Frenchman did it again this past week in New York, winning 3 matches to earn his place in the field of 128. Meanwhile, Jiri Vesely hasn’t played much tennis of late. That is nothing new for him as it’s like he disappears from the tour and then just shows up for majors. That strategy has worked out well for him in the past at Wimbledon, but never at the U.S. Open. Couacaud is 1-0 in the head-to-head series with Vesely and he should be 2-0 – with ease – following this one.

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