Ricky Dimon
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Novak Djokovic can’t win the calendar-year Grand Slam in 2023 since he recently lost to Carlos Alcaraz in an epic Wimbledon final, but he can add to his record number of major singles titles (23) when he returns to the U.S. Open for the first time since 2021 (when he lost in the final to Daniil Medvedev with the calendar-year slam just 1 win away). The stakes remain high – if not historic – in New York.
Will Djokovic take care of business, and potentially even do so in another instant classic with Alcaraz? Or will a slow changing of the guard continue to materialize, led by Alcaraz, Medvedev, Jannik Sinner and Stefanos Tsitsipas?
Here are the odds and my picks for the men’s side at the 2023 U.S. Open.
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U.S. Open men’s singles odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Novak Djokovic +125
Carlos Alcaraz +190
Daniil Medvedev +1000
Jannik Sinner +1400
Stefanos Tsitsipas +4000
Alexander Zverev +4000
Holger Rune +5000
Casper Ruud +5000
Taylor Fritz +6000
Frances Tiafoe +6500
Hubert Hurkacz +8000
Andrey Rublev +8000
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3-star value play: Daniil Medvedev (+1000)
At some point when I keep going back to the well with Medvedev, it’s going to pay off – right? The third-ranked Russian didn’t do much at recent 1000-point tournaments in Toronto and Cincinnati, but there is no need to worry. That leaves him well rested for New York and Medvedev is a proven force at Grand Slams. He won the U.S. Open in 2021, finished runner-up to Rafael Nadal in 2019, was also runner-up to Nadal at the 2022 Australian Open and recently advanced to the Wimbledon semifinals. Somewhat forgotten behind Alcaraz and Djokovic at the moment, these are the best odds anyone has gotten on Medvedev at major in a long time.
2-star value play: Taylor Fritz (+6000)
It’s fair to say that Fritz does not have a good draw with Stefanos Tsitsipas in the fourth round and Djokovic in the quarterfinals as 2 of his projected opponents. Still, Tsitsipas has been struggling and Fritz once took Djokovic to 5 sets at a Grand Slams (2021 Australian Open). The ninth-ranked American has been in outstanding form this season, with a 45-19 record that includes 2 titles – including 1 to begin the hard-court summer in Atlanta. Odds of +6000 are too good to pass up.
1-star value play: Tommy Paul (+13000)
In the Big 3 era dominated by Djokovic, Nadal and Roger Federer, major titles were almost never won by anyone else. There is much more parity now, and – unless Alcaraz starts absolutely dominating – there will continue to be more and more once Djokovic retires. I wouldn’t be shocked if we start seeing some surprise champions right now. Paul has been one of the stars of the hard-court summer, with a semifinal run in Toronto and 2 thrilling matches against Alcaraz (1 win, 1 loss). The world No #14 finds himself in by far the weakest section of the draw along with several other Americans who could contend, so the host nation could make some real noise this coming fortnight. I also like Frances Tiafoe at +6500 and would make a small play on both Americans. Of course, the value on Paul is even better; there’s no way he should be twice as long of a shot as Tiafoe.
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