Ricky Dimon
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It’s week two of the U.S. Open, so we are getting toward the business end of the tournament. The remaining quarterfinal spots will be handed out on Monday, with Rafael Nadal among those looking to advance. Nadal is my best futures bet on the men’s side and I’m not wavering in confidence as he approaches the quarterfinals. On the women’s side, Serena Williams may be out but the host nation still has several legitimate title contenders remaining — including Jessica Pegula.
I am 14-5 through six days following a 3-0 performance on Saturday and a 2-1 record on Sunday. Let’s keep the momentum going with my Monday picks!
Jessica Pegula ML over Petra Kvitova (-125)
Pegula was one of my best futures plays at the beginning of the fortnight and I like it even more now. The eighth-seeded American has lost only one set through three rounds and she followed up that one hiccup by erasing Yue Yuan 6-0 in their third set on Saturday. Kvitova is also playing well, but she just endured one of the best matches of the tournament — one that lasted two hours and 39 minutes against Garbine Muguruza and went to 10-7 in the third-set tiebreaker. The Czech isn’t going to be entirely fresh and she isn’t one of the best movers on tour in the first place. Pegula, the son of Buffalo Bills owner Terry Pegula, will be playing in front of the home crowd and should have an edge.
Victoria Azarenka ML over Karolina Pliskova (-109)
Azarenka dropped a set in her opening match, but since then she has been on a roll. Neither Marta Kostyuk nor Petra Martic — both respectable opponents — came close to taking a set off her. Pliskova, on the other hand, is coming off a two-hour and 28-battle with Belinda Bencic and she also went to three sets in round one. In fact, her opener against Magda Linette went to a third-set tiebreaker. It should also be noted that Azarenka is 2-1 against Pliskova on hard courts (4-4 overall) and has won each of their last two matches on this surface. The two-time Grand Slam champion should be the pick.
Parlay: Rafael Nadal ML over Frances Tiafoe, Carlos Alcaraz ML over Marin Cilic and Jannik Sinner ML over Ilya Ivashka (-114)
I’m generally not a fan of putting more than two legs together in a tennis parlay, but there is only one toss-up men’s match on Monday: Andrey Rublev against Cameron Norrie. The other three should be straightforward. Nadal raised his level with a straight-set beatdown of Richard Gasquet on Saturday and he is 2-0 lifetime in the head-to-head series, including 5-0 in total sets. Alcaraz is 2-0 against Cilic on hard courts, with both wins coming this year and both in straight sets. Ivashka has never been past this round of a Grand Slam in his career, so a lack of experience could be a factor for him against an in-form Sinner.
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