Ricky Dimon
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It’s women’s semifinal day at the U.S. Open before the men take center stage on Friday. Ons Jabeur is going up against Carolina Garcia, while Iga Swiatek awaits Aryna Sabalenka. Both matches will be played in primetime under the lights in Arthur Ashe Stadium, so the atmosphere should be fun.
Speaking of fun, my best bets record stands at 18-10-1 through 10 days; let’s keep the momentum going with my Thursday picks! I also have a U.S. Open outright bet on Sabalenka, so that could take one more step toward cashing. She is making her third semifinal appearance in the span of five Grand Slams played and is one of three remaining competitors — Swiatek being the exception — looking for their firs major title.
Ons Jabeur vs Caroline Garcia Over 21.5 games (-115)
Jabeur is the higher-ranked player with more experience at the business end of big tournaments. Garcia is red hot coming off a title in Cincinnati and has not lost a single set at the U.S. Open. It is actually the Frenchwoman who is favored by the oddsmakers despite the rankings. All in all, this has the makings of an extremely competitive contest that should go over the number. Jabeur may be the underdog, but she is a perfect 6-0 lifetime in the head-to-head series. Although the Tunisian could conceivably lose, it’s hard to see her suddenly getting blown out after having enjoyed so much success in this matchup. At the same time, there is no reason to think Garcia will bow out quickly given all of her aforementioned accolades. I expect nothing less than one of the best matches of the tournament.
Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka Under 21.5 games (-105)
I don’t love this bet quite as much, but if you simply play the percentages you have to like it at least a little bit. Swiatek and Sabalenka have squared off on four previous occasions and three — all three this year — have stayed under the 21.5 number. The world No. 1 has won all three of their 2022 encounters in straight sets; not one has lasted more than 17 games. Moreover, they have played nine total sets against each other and not a single one has gone to a tiebreaker. Seven of the nine have been no more competitive than 6-2. These two competitors simply don’t play well against each other at the same time; it’s either one or the other. The smart money is on Swiatek winning this one in routine fashion. After all, she has won eight consecutive matches against top-10 opponents in straight sets. But it also wouldn’t be that crazy if Sabalenka — if her serve is working — just comes out firing and takes the racket out of Swiatek’s hands. The Belarusian’s power is such that she is capable of doing that. The bottom line is you should lead toward the under, although a relatively small play would be advisable.
