Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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After sweeping my board last night (4-0), I am dedicated to owning this Pacers vs Knicks Game 2 tonight.
There are a few things I noticed in Game 1. The pace was faster than I was expecting the Knicks to play and the Pacers have more contributions from their bench than the Knicks, so I’m curious if New York slows it down a bit. Jalen Brunson is playing like a top-5 player in the league, Mitchell Robinson going down makes the Knicks even thinner in the depth column and Tyrese Haliburton needs to show us something offensively. Oh, and you can’t call a moving screen in the playoffs with the game on the line (sorry, Myles Tuner. That’s not your fault).
Here are my favorite prop picks for Wednesday.
Andrew Nembhard (IND) Over 17.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Nembhard stood out to me in Game 1 despite having one of his worst box scores of the playoffs. He was swarming defensively on Brunson and attacked the basket well despite great help defense from Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo. Nembhard scored all 11 of his points and 3 of his 4 assists with Robinson off the floor, which will help this line as Robinson is set to miss the next 6-8 weeks. The Knicks will likely go small, helping Nembhard finish at the rim and get assists into the hands of Turner and Pascal Siakam. His 2 rebounds in Game 1 were the second lowest of the postseason and lowest of any game against the Knicks in the 2023-2024 season, so expect some positive regression. He is averaging 21.14 PRA per game this postseason, including a Game 1 dud against Milwaukee. His 29 minutes were the lowest of any game this postseason and it was largely in part to TJ McConnell’s success scoring the basketball, which should regress slightly in Game 2. His 3 fouls at halftime also limited some aggressiveness, which should not be the case tonight. 1u.
Game 2 Longshot
Myles Turner, IND, most 3-pointers made (+1000)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
At 10-1, this is worth $5 or 0.1u — whichever is less in your bankroll. Turner went 2-for-6 in Game 1 and his 6 triples were the 3rd most in the game of any player. OG Anunoby and DiVincenzo were ahead of him, but I expect Indiana to defend DVD much differently this game to avoid him getting hot out of the gate. OG is an interesting alternative at +2500, as I noticed Obi Toppin leaving him wide open in most instances — but he’s too streaky to really rely on. Three-point shooting is very much a part of Turner’s game; he has attempted 6+ 3s in 5 of 7 postseason games this year, including 9+ 3 times and a 7-for-9 effort in Game 4 of the opening round against the Milwaukee Bucks.
