Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
Show Bio
After last night’s exciting matchups we’re back with 2 more big NBA Play-In Tournament games as the Heat battle the 76ers before the Hawks take on the Bulls. Our pick on CJ McCollum was an unjustly loser last night but I’m back to right that wrong with another 1.5-unit play in the Hawks vs Bulls game. You can read our NBA picks for each of tonight’s play-in games, but for now, let’s dive into my favorite NBA player prop bet of the day.
Bogdan Bogdanovic (ATL) over 16.5 points (-118)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Another 1.5u play for me, but I feel really good about these guys when the minutes are up based on the data we have available. Let’s take a look at Bogie now that his best bud is back (alliteration in a handicap is a recipe for success).
This one is simple and we’ve seen it all season. It is counter-intuitive to bring Trae Young back, move Bogdanovic to the bench, and expect his scoring to stay as high as it was with Trae out. However, his role changes. Without Trae, he’s the 1st or 2nd scoring option most nights. With Trae he is getting the benefit of the attention Trae gets (Caruso will get Trae tomorrow) and he owns the lesser matchups, along with open threes.
With Trae on the floor, Bogie averages 29.06 points per 100 possessions. Without Trae on the floor, that drops down to 25.27 points per 100 possessions. He cleared this in all 3 games against CHI this season, but in the 2 games played with Trae, he went for 22 and 28. 1.5u.
Don’t miss our Hawks vs Bulls Same Game Parlay at +519 odds for tonight’s matchup
