Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The NBA pushed all their chips in tonight before All-Star Weekend and gave us an enormous 13-game slate to sift through. As always, injury news is the most imperative to address before handicapping any game in the NBA. The major injuries that stand out as of 8:00 am ET are: Tobias Harris (PHI) is out, Donte DiVincenzo (NYK) is questionable, RJ Barrett (TOR) is questionable, Fred VanVleet and Cam Whitmore (HOU) are out, Dereck Lively (DAL) upgraded to questionable for the first time in a while, Jamal Murray (DEN) is questionable and Kawhi Leonard (LAC) is out. With all that in mind, I’ve come up with my best NBA player prop bet of the night. Let’s dive in, but make sure you also check out our NBA picks for each of tonight’s big matchups.
James Harden (LAC) over 20.5 points (-120)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing.
It seems a little obvious to pivot to James Harden with Kawhi being out, but the line is still attractive at 20.5. With Kawhi off the floor, Harden’s usage jumps to over 24%, which is +4 points above his season average of 20.7. In the 7 games this season where Harden’s usage is 24+, he averaged 25 ppg and hit this line in 5 of 7 games. In the 4 games that Kawhi missed this season, Harden was a rollercoaster in the scoring department: 23 points against the Thunder in a loss, 14 against the Celtics in a blowout loss, 29 against the Hornets in a win and 16 against the Grizzlies in a win (when they had Marcus Smart).
Harden has cleared this line against the Warriors in 2 of 3 games this season and over the last 10 Golden State is allowing the 2nd-most points in the paint/non-restricted. Harden is averaging 10.4 drives per game this season, but that number goes to 12 in the 3 games against the Warriors, where he gets nearly 3 free-throw attempts per game from that approach alone. In the 4 games Kawhi missed this season, Harden’s drive number increased to 13.3 per game for 5.3 points. To round this out, Harden is +7.3 points per 100 possessions with Kawhi off the floor. 1u
We’re looking to cash our 3rd SGP in 3 days with our Clippers vs Warriors Same Game Parlay
$5 NBA Player Props Lotto Ticket (+3375)
- Tre Mann 5+ Assists & Hornets Win
- James Harden 25+ Points & Clippers Win
- Tyrese Haliburton Double-Double & Pacers Win
$5 pays $173.79
