Ahaan Rungta
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After a day off in the NBA, we are back with a loaded 14-game slate. It is time to navigate uncertain situations and find value in the betting market, coming off a 2-0 sweep on Monday. You can read today’s NBA predictions but here are my favorite NBA player prop bets for Wednesday, November 8, both coming in the same game in Memphis.
Kyle Lowry (MIA) Over 1.5 3-pointers made (+110)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The 37-year-old point guard Kyle Lowry has been primarily a playmaker for the Miami Heat this season instead of a volume scorer. However, it seems like we’re buying extremely low with this plus-money prop. Over the last 6 games, regardless of the availability of others, Lowry has started and checked either 4 or 5 threes in each game. With Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro all in line to start on Wednesday, the Memphis Grizzlies’ best defensive weapons should be focusing their efforts on defending Miami’s big 3 scorers and that could result in open-shot duties for Lowry.
This season, the Grizzlies have allowed the 3rd-most 3-point makes per game from point guards and the most makes per game, attempts per game, and the highest efficiency overall on above-the-break threes, where Lowry gets a majority of attempts. He has gone under this line in back-to-back games, which is probably why we are getting plus-money value. Snag the positive regression number now in this bounceback spot.
Ziaire Williams (MEM) Over 8.5 points (-115)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1.25u wager.
Just like Lowry, we are buying low on a player coming off a quiet game. This time, we’re taking a youngster on the Grizzlies who the casual fan might not know much about. Memphis has struggled early in the season without their franchise cornerstone Ja Morant and in his absence, Ziaire Williams is going to have to step up and take some open shots against a top-heavy Miami Heat. As head coach Erik Spoelstra looks to eliminate top options Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., role players such as Williams find themselves some open looks.
Overall on the season, Miami has allowed the 5th-most makes per game in the restricted area and the 16th-most makes per game on above-the-break threes (on the 7th-highest efficiency). That’s exactly Williams’ game, as he earns layups on cuts and threes on kicks. Williams has cleared this line in 3 of his 4 games with 29+ minutes logged, with the miss being an 8-point performance on a season-low 37.5% from the field. With big man Xavier Tillman also ruled out and a close Vegas spread, Williams should be a lock for 30+ minutes barring foul trouble, making this scoring line a strong play.
You can also read Wednesday’s NBA mega parlay
