Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Thanksgiving Eve provides us with the biggest NBA slate of the week. Realizing the NFL owns Thanksgiving, the NBA pivoted to tonight to give us some of the best matchups we’ve seen in a while: Bucks vs Celtics, Warriors vs Suns, and Lakers Mavericks. I have my eye on the Dillon Brooks vs Grizzlies matchup as well for a possible revenge factor moment. Both plays are for 1 unit so let’s dive into a few props for tonight’s slate.
Aaron Gordon (DEN) over 6.5 Rebounds (-120)
Line available on Bet365 sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Gordon is averaging 0.21 RPM on a median min output of nearly 35 min and his road min look bad on paper (31 per game), those averages are being brought down due to two massive blowouts that cut him down to 18/23. These are outliers. Let’s pencil him in for that 35min tonight cause the Nuggets will need him against the likes of Paolo Banchero. At 35 min, I project him at 7.35 rebounds tonight. Could the Magic be a little fatigued coming off a b2b? Possibly, but they’re a young squad, I’m less worried. Gordon is a former member of the Magic and has gone OFF against them in the past. Last season vs ORL, he averaged 31P 10.5 REB in 2 games. It was his highest output vs any team. I will comb the books for his best line on a DD but the over 6.5 Rebounds is a safe start for us. Only reason I’m not unloading more $$ on it is if this game becomes a blowout and Gordon sits most of the 4Q.
Myles Turner over 23.5 Points+ Rebounds (-110)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This is going to take some faith from you guys, but hear me out. Pacers are coming off that absurd game last night vs ATL, but Turner only saw 25min. Simply put, the PACE in the 2H was too much for him and he sat the rest of the after after midway through the 3Q and Toppin finished strong. Tonight’s matchup is the much better spot for Turner against the Raptors. TOR is bottom 10 in PACE and bottom 10 in defensive possession length, meaning they play good defense and slow down the game for offenses (even IND’s coming off last night). To me, this is a great spot for Turner to get near 27-29min with TOR’s frontcourt of Siakam/Poeltl. Last season’s results should tell us the same, *where Turner averaged 29.1 min 17.7P and 9 Reb vs TOR*. I expect both teams coming of the b2b to slow down the game tonight and give Turner a chance to really be a factor. Turner is averaging 0.89 Points/Rebounds per min in the month of November. If we project him to just 28min, we land at 24.92 PR for the night. If he plays 29min, that number goes to 25.81PR. Turner is also averaging 31.9 MPG on 3 b2b games this season. Lot of upside on this one. It’s a good spot and his DD will be on my radar for the RR.
