Ahaan Rungta
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We have an 8-game slate in the NBA tonight and it is time to find the best spots for betting value in the player prop department. This season I’m 29-17 with my NBA player prop picks for a +20.5% ROI, and tonight I’m looking to improve that record even further. You can read our NBA picks for tonight’s hottest matchups, but for now, let’s dive into my 2 favorite NBA player prop bets for Wednesday, January 24.
Max Strus (CLE) over 11.5 points (-120)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Milwaukee Bucks just fired their rookie head coach and it might help them play some inspired basketball on their way to a win but it likely won’t instantly make their defense very staunch. A unit that bases itself off rim protection and does not have reputed depth to stop a capable offense will now match up against a short-handed Cavaliers team that seemingly relies on a different shooter every night to step up big and complement Donovan Mitchell.
On the season, Milwaukee is the 7th-worst spot-up shooting defense by points per possession allowed and in these teams’ previous meeting, Cleveland rode a 33-point performance off the bench from Georges Niang onto a blowout win. If it were not for Niang’s historically hot night, Max Strus would have been playing in that role instead of being restricted to only 22 minutes. On the season, Strus averages 11.2 points per 33 minutes in games where Mitchell plays but Darius Garland and Evan Mobley are out, as they will be today. This is a buy-low spot on a player that should be high in volume in today’s matchup.
Go big tonight and read our NBA mega parlay at +1268 odds
Jusuf Nurkic (PHX) over 3.5 first-quarter points (-120)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The Phoenix Suns face the Dallas Mavericks today, who have listed Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving as questionable. Although their statuses will have a major impact on the result of the game, we can instead target Jusuf Nurkic attacking a hole in the first-quarter market, which enables us to take the long-term gamescript out of the picture.
Dallas’ starting center Dereck Lively II has recently returned from injury and in his first healthy stint of the season (until December 14), the Mavericks were a bottom-10 defense in the restricted area and paint in the first quarter. That is exactly where Nurkic works, and although he has only cleared this line twice in his last 10 games, there is a reason the juice is on the over here. He still averages 3.6 points per 7 minutes in the first quarter when Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant are all in the starting lineup. Buy low on the Bosnian beast in this friendly matchup.
After last night’s winner, don’t miss our Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks Same Game Parlay
