Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
Show Bio
We have a 10-pack of games tonight in the NBA with a few interesting matchups. The Timberwolves are on a back-to-back tonight heading to Boston to take on the Celtics. Due to the storms hitting the Northeast, the T-Wolves were delayed in getting out of Orlando and will arrive 7 hours before tip-off, which could be something to watch out for in terms of how they start the game. The Pelicans head west to play the Warriors and Zion Williamson is currently questionable. Lastly, Kawhi plays the franchise he brought a championship to as the Raptors are on a back-to-back in Los Angeles. You can read our NBA picks for tonight, but for now, let’s take a look at my best NBA player prop bet.
Bruce Brown (IND) over 14.5 points+assists (-120)
Odds available at Bet365 at time of publishing.
Tyrese Haliburton is out tonight with a left hamstring strain as the Pacers host the Washington Wizards. From a strictly numbers perspective, Brown’s line looks unchanged to account for Haliburton being out of the lineup. He’s averaging 0.48 Points+Assists per minute this season and has a median minute output of 31, projecting him safely at 14.9 P+A. When you dig deeper, you see that Brown benefits in both the points and assists column with Haliburton off the floor and his usage slightly increases by 5.7% in these situations.
Amongst starters, Brown has the highest point differential with Haliburton off the court, going up to 8.7 points per 100 possessions. In the assist column, Brown increases by 1.9 assists more per 100 possessions in the same scenario. This is the same Wizards team that Brown had his second-highest scoring output of the entire season, with 24 points on 8-of-11 shooting and he went 6-of-8 from beyond the arc. Brown is an even 50% against this mark this season, hitting it in 15 of 30 games and 9 of 14 when he plays 32+ minutes this season. This is a 1.5 unit play. It’s playable at 15.5, but bring down to 1 unit.
Don’t miss our Pelicans vs Warriors Same Game Parlay at +472 odds for tonight’s game on ABC
