Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Tuesday night in the NBA is VERY exciting as we have Game 1s for Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder. The Cavaliers come in as monster underdogs on the series at (+1120) while the Mavericks opened as series favorites and have since flipped to (+106). I typically try to go easy for the first game of a series as we want to see how the game plans unfold, so we’ll tread lightly and pick our spots out of the gate. You can find out our NBA picks on the side and total for each of tonight’s games, but for now, let’s get into my best NBA player prop bets for Tuesday, May 7.
Payton Pritchard (BOS) over 5.5 rebounds + assists (-115)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis for the foreseeable future and that has an impact on their bench rotations. Al Horford slides into the starting lineup and that means Pritchard is the first man off the bench. He played over 20 minutes in 3 of 5 games in the first round and never saw below 18 in any game. For this series and given Porzingis’ injury, I can see Pritchard being a real contributor. Sam Hauser was extremely valuable in the Miami series based on the zone-heavy approach Spoelstra takes, but that shouldn’t be the case against Cleveland. His defense in the backcourt will likely be on display against Garland and Mitchell.
Regular season stats aren’t the most reliable for playoff handicapping, but Pritchard’s stats against Cleveland are eye-popping. In the 93 possessions Boston had against the Cavs without Porzingis on the floor, Pritchard led the team in assists (6 total). Pritchard was 2nd on the team in total rebounds (11) and first in defensive rebounds. The explanation being with Cleveland playing from behind they are liable to attempt more threes, which Pritchard is great at tracking down. 1u
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Daniel Gafford (DAL) over 6.5 rebounds (+100) / 8+ (+160)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Dallas is going from Ivica Zubac and Mason Plumlee to Chet Holmgrem in terms of frontcourt matchups. This is a series in which Daniel Gafford should have a much bigger role after being overpowered by Zubac in round 1. During the regular season, Gafford averaged 0.14 rebounds per possession against the Thunder. If he plays 25 minutes, that projects us at 7.29 rebounds and we’re getting it without any vig. He hit this in 3 of 3 games against OKC this season, with 9, 9 and 15 rebounds. This is a fun buy-low spot on Gafford coming off a bad matchup for him and I doubt we see a line this low again for him. Play his 8+ at +160 for 0.5u, while his double-double at +750 is worth $5.
We cashed our Pacers vs Knicks SGP last night! Now read our Mavericks vs Thunder Same Game Parlay at +476 odds
