Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Last night we cashed our solo 1u play on Kristaps Porzingis with 7 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. It was sweat free, to say the least.
Let’s see what we can dig up tonight. Paul George of the Clippers is the big name on the injury report and will miss the battle of Los Angeles against the Lakers (+3.5). The Mavericks, Bulls, Cavaliers and Pelicans are all on the tail end of a back-to-back as something to note. Let’s dive into my best NBA player prop bet today, but make sure you also read our NBA picks for tonight’s slate.
Rudy Gobert, C, MIN Under 13.5 rebounds (-105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Gobert is coming off 39 minutes last night against the San Antonio Spurs and gets thrusted back into a matchup with the lowly Memphis Grizzlies in which the Minnesota Timberwolves are 12.5-point favorites. In B2Bs this season, Gobert averages 11.8 rebounds per game. I can see a scenario in which the T-Wolves pull back the minutes on the Defensive Player of the Year. For reference, when Gobert plays less than 35 minutes, he has only hit this mark in 7 of 30 games.
It’s interesting matchup, as well, even when he is on the court — 73 percent of his rebounds are at the rim through long mid-range jump shots, and over the last 10 games the Grizzlies are shooting the 5th-fewest shots at the rim, middle of the pack outside the restricted area and 2nd-fewest shots in the mid range. This shot profile does not lend itself to Gobert’s rebounding portfolio. I would consider fading this number if it wasn’t a back-to-back situation, but when you factor that in plus the blowout potential, we have the recipe for a solid under. 1u.
Read our full Memphis Grizzlies vs Minnesota Timberwolves predictions
1-2-3 NBA Parlay (+719)
Nikola Jokic (DEN) 1+ 3PM: Hit in 2 of 3 games against SAC this season and in 17 of 27 home games.
Obi Toppin (IND) 2+ 3PM: Hit in 5 of the last 6 games and playing a Pelicans team that is allowing 3.7 corner 3s per game over the last 10 at a 40% clip.
Tim Hardaway Jr (DAL) 3+ 3PM: Raptors allowing the most 3s over the last 10 games and Hardaway shines in back-to-backs, shooting 45% from deep this season.
Check out our LA Lakers vs LA Clippers Same Game Parlay for the Battle of Los Angeles tonight at +420 odds!
